## Global Coffee Supply Surge Pressures Robusta Prices: Vietnam Leads Output Growth

**Market Pressures Mount as Production Records Near**

Robusta coffee prices faced sustained downward momentum this week, sliding 1.02% in March ICE futures trading, while arabica contracts declined more sharply at 3.41%. The primary catalyst stems from Vietnam's accelerating export volume—the world's leading robusta coffee producer shipped 1.58 million metric tons in 2025, reflecting a robust 17.5% year-over-year surge according to Vietnam's National Statistics Office. Projections indicate Vietnam's 2025/26 output could reach 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), potentially marking a four-year production peak if favorable weather patterns persist.

**Brazil's Arabica Recovery Meets Supply Abundance**

Weather developments in Brazil tell a different story. After recent rainfall concerns triggered a sharp arabica rally last Thursday—pushing prices to four-week highs—forecasts predicting meaningful precipitation across central Brazil this week have reversed sentiment. Minas Gerais, Brazil's primary arabica cultivation zone, previously endured below-average moisture conditions, receiving just 47.9 mm during the week ending January 2, approximately 67% of historical norms. However, Brazil's crop forecasting agency Conab has lifted its 2025 harvest estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, signaling abundance despite near-term weather volatility.

**Currency Headwinds and Inventory Dynamics**

The U.S. dollar's ascent to four-week peaks has compounded selling pressure across commodity markets. Meanwhile, inventory trends present a mixed picture: ICE-tracked arabica stocks tumbled to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags in November before recovering to 461,829 bags by mid-week, while robusta reserves similarly bounced from December lows to five-week highs.

**Global Output Trajectory Points to Record Production**

The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) forecasts global coffee production for 2025/26 will hit a record 178.848 million bags—a 2% annual increase. This growth masks divergent regional trends: arabica output is projected to contract 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta surges 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil's crop faces a 3.1% decline to 63 million bags, whereas Vietnam's harvest climbs 6.2% to 30.8 million bags.

**Supply Exhaustion Unlikely**

Ending stocks for 2025/26 are anticipated to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year fell just 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, indicating resilient trade flows despite price pressures. With production gains concentrated in robusta-producing regions and ample harvests projected, the near-term pricing environment appears constrained by supply abundance rather than scarcity concerns.