Does anyone feel that the current crypto market script looks a bit familiar? Comparing it with the candlestick charts from 2019-2020, it’s almost a direct copy, with no change in the trend rhythm. BTC has been sideways at high levels for over two weeks, and PEPE’s wild swings are a complete replay of DOGE’s madness back then. Veteran players remain silent, while newcomers are completely confused. So here’s the question—are we witnessing history repeating itself, or has the market found a more ruthless way to cut profits? Today, let’s dissect the logic behind this cycle.

First, a bit of historical context, or else the subsequent analysis might be hard to follow. The 2019-2020 cycle is a textbook example of capital rotation: after BTC stabilized around $3,000, it entered a prolonged sideways consolidation phase. During this period, institutions quietly accumulated, infrastructure gradually improved, and the market ecosystem evolved from a chaotic retail battle to a mix of institutional and retail players. By May 2020, BTC experienced its third halving, and the global liquidity easing fueled a strong rebound. DOGE’s performance was particularly eye-catching—after BTC broke through resistance zones, DOGE’s four-week rally pushed market sentiment to a peak before it retraced, perfectly illustrating the “big brother stabilizes the market, little brother performs” scenario.

Looking at the current chart, it’s really like a mold was used. BTC’s safe haven has been sideways for over two weeks, now entering the third week of the quagmire, with volatility suppressed to a level that can make traders doze off. But there’s a key market law: extreme calm often signals an impending storm. Historically, after long periods of sideways movement, BTC tends to either break out decisively after accumulation or undergo a quick correction followed by a secondary surge. Whichever scenario unfolds, it usually triggers a rotation effect among altcoins. This is not guesswork but a pattern validated through multiple cycles.

Why is this the case? Simply put, BTC acts as the market’s confidence anchor, establishing the main trend and fueling bullish enthusiasm. Once BTC shows a clear directional move, capital begins flowing from top-tier coins into mid- and small-cap altcoins—that’s the so-called “rotation pattern.” PEPE’s current performance is a real-time demonstration of this logic. In the short term, as long as BTC remains high and sideways, high-heat tokens will continue to attract emotional trading, with short-term opportunities emerging constantly. But in the medium term, the real big opportunities are likely to appear only after BTC breaks out of its trend. So, the current trading approach is clear: follow the hype in the short term, but don’t loosen your grip—mid-term buy points probably haven’t arrived yet.