【BTC Deep Dive Analysis: Key Support Tests During the Deepening of the Correction】

Currently, BTC is priced at 94662, and the technical structure clearly indicates that the correction is deepening. The two-cycle charts show synchronized weakening: the short cycle has already broken below key support, while the long cycle faces trendline tests. The market is at a critical juncture between mid-term strength and weakness.

Multi-Cycle Technical Structure In-Depth Analysis

Cycle One (Shorter Cycle): Clear Break Below Key Platform

· Price has broken below all short-term moving averages (MA5-MA30: 95033-95684), forming a standard bearish alignment
· MACD indicator is in a clear bearish state: DIF (-276) and DEA (-202) are both below zero and continue to decline, with the MACD histogram (-73.7) showing expansion
· RSI (34) has entered the weak zone, approaching the oversold line at 30 but still some distance away
· Volume has increased during the decline, indicating ongoing bearish momentum
· Key levels: current price around 94671, with 94234 as the low 24 hours ago, and the pressure zone between 95390-95684 above

Cycle Two (Longer Cycle): Uptrend Facing Severe Test

· Price is testing critical mid-term support: MA30 (94209) and MA60 (92617) form a stepwise defense line
· MACD shows conflicting signals: DIF (653.5) remains high, but MACD histogram (-321.7) has turned deeply negative, indicating mid- to long-term upward momentum is waning
· RSI (50.6) is just around the midpoint, with bullish and bearish forces nearly balanced, about to break
· Price has fallen from the high of 99888, forming a clear downward channel, currently near the lower boundary
· Key levels: 94209 (MA30) as the mid-term lifeline, 92617 (MA60) as the trend defense line

Multi-Dimensional Validation of Key Levels

Upper Resistance Zone: 95390-95684 Triple Resistance

1. Technical Pressure: Dead cross area of short-term moving averages (MA20: 95390, MA30: 95684)
2. Structural Resistance: Former low turned resistance and upper boundary of the descending channel
3. Psychological Resistance: Round number zone at 95000-96000

Lower Support Zone: 92617-94209 Double Defense Line

1. Dynamic Defense: MA30 (94209) as the mid-term trend line; losing it confirms an upgraded correction
2. Static Defense: MA60 (92617) and previous platform forming a resonance support zone
3. Psychological Defense: Round number at 92000 and previous dense trading area

Two Evolution Paths of Bull-Bear Battle

Path One (Probability 60%): Rebound to test resistance then continue downward
Price temporarily stabilizes in the 94200-94600 range, rebounds upward to test the resistance zone at 95300-95600. But it encounters resistance and falls back, eventually breaking below 94200 with increased volume, testing the 92600-93000 zone. This pattern will form a standard “downtrend continuation” shape.

Path Two (Probability 40%): Direct acceleration to bottom then strong rebound
Price shows no clear rebound, remains weak and oscillates below 94800. Then, with increased volume, it breaks below the key support at 94200, quickly drops near 92600. But strong support is found there, forming a double bottom or bullish divergence on the daily chart, initiating a strong rebound. This scenario involves larger fluctuations but also a stronger rebound.

Refined Trading Strategies

Current Range Trading Strategy (Applicable if 94200-95300 remains unbroken)

· Bearish Opportunity: When price rebounds to 95000-95300 and shows 15-minute divergence signals, try small short positions with stop-loss at 95600, target 94600→94200
· Bullish Opportunity: When price drops to 92600-93000 and shows 4-hour stabilization signals, add to long positions in batches, stop-loss at 92000, target 94200→95000
· Position Size: Risk exposure per trade not exceeding 1.5% of capital, total position within 50%

Breakout Follow-Through Strategies

· Upward Breakout: Price volume-breaks above 95600 and stabilizes for 2 hours, then chase longs on the right side, stop-loss at 95000, target 96500→97500
· Downward Break: Price volume-breaks below 94000 and cannot recover within 1 hour, then chase shorts, stop-loss at 94600, target 92600→92000
· Position Size: 2-3% at initial breakout, increase to 5% after confirmation

Risk Alerts and Key Observation Points

1. On-Chain Data: Large BTC outflows from exchanges slow down; watch for signs of inflows
2. Related Markets: Continued decline in US stocks may accelerate BTC correction
3. Sentiment Indicators: Fear and Greed Index has retreated from extreme greed; monitor for entry into fear zone
4. Time Window: Weekly close approaching, weekend liquidity may amplify volatility

Current Optimal Strategy Summary
Recommend mainly a “high short, low long” defensive approach. Until price clearly stabilizes above 95300, maintain a bearish outlook. Focus on two key levels: the rebound strength at the resistance zone 95300-95600 above, and the validity of support at 94200 below.

Pay particular attention to the contest at 94200 support — this level is not only the mid-term trend line of MA30 but also a cluster of stop-losses for many longs. If broken, it could trigger a chain of stop-losses, accelerating downward movement to 92600. Conversely, if strong support is established here and a rebound breaks above 95300, the correction may end early.

(The market is in a deepening correction phase; exercise high caution. Subscribers can access real-time long-short ratio adjustments, precise order price settings, and hedging strategies for breakout scenarios.)#GateTradFi使用体验