The survival bias trap—one of crypto's oldest playbooks. Here's the mechanics behind it.
You spin up a bunch of wallets. Dozens, hundreds, whatever scales. Then you go all-in on daily coinflips across every single account, maximum risk every time. Most collapse to zero pretty fast. Exponentially fast, actually. But here's where it gets interesting: a handful of them don't. A few thread the needle through pure luck and keep winning. Those lucky survivors? They look unstoppable. They look like geniuses.
That's the trap. People only see the accounts that made it. They never see the graveyard of the 99 that got liquidated. The winner becomes the narrative. The cautionary tale stays invisible. So traders start copying what looks like a winning strategy, when really they're just seeing the statistical outlier dressed up as skill.
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gas_fee_trauma
· 1h ago
In simple terms, it's survivor bias. Out of a hundred accounts, ninety-nine go to zero unnoticed, and the remaining one becomes a "genius trader."
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WenMoon
· 01-16 23:09
Survivorship bias is really a classic trick; someone always falls for it every time.
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BankruptWorker
· 01-16 23:08
Isn't this just the old trick in the crypto world? Survivor bias never gets old.
Copy the winner's strategy? Wake up, everyone. That's just copying luck.
No one talks about the 99 accounts that blew up; they only focus on that one that made money. Truly impressive.
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PhantomMiner
· 01-16 23:04
Oh no, isn't this the same routine we see every day? The winner shows their account, and the losers have already deleted their accounts.
Honestly, I've seen this routine many times. No one mentions the 99 accounts that got liquidated, only that one "Vernissage" that everyone on the internet believes.
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Copying the winner's strategy? Wake up. What you see might just be that lucky one.
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Survivor bias is really serious. Most people are tricked into believing by screenshots of a few survivors.
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That's why you'll never hear the stories of the losers, only the aura of the winners. This is why so many people still go all in.
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Blaming luck as skill, then a bunch of rookies follow suit. It's an old routine.
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SchrodingerAirdrop
· 01-16 22:52
No one pays attention to 99 accounts that got liquidated, but a screenshot of 1 profitable account goes viral online—that's the magic of crypto.
The survival bias trap—one of crypto's oldest playbooks. Here's the mechanics behind it.
You spin up a bunch of wallets. Dozens, hundreds, whatever scales. Then you go all-in on daily coinflips across every single account, maximum risk every time. Most collapse to zero pretty fast. Exponentially fast, actually. But here's where it gets interesting: a handful of them don't. A few thread the needle through pure luck and keep winning. Those lucky survivors? They look unstoppable. They look like geniuses.
That's the trap. People only see the accounts that made it. They never see the graveyard of the 99 that got liquidated. The winner becomes the narrative. The cautionary tale stays invisible. So traders start copying what looks like a winning strategy, when really they're just seeing the statistical outlier dressed up as skill.