Prediction Market Polymarket reveals an interesting phenomenon: expectations regarding the Federal Reserve Chair candidate are rapidly converging.

Kevin Woorh's probability of being nominated has surged above 60%, clearly leading other candidates. In contrast, Hasset's nomination probability has fallen to around 15%, on par with current board member Waller. This is not just a fluctuation in numbers but a substantive change in the expectation structure.

Signals come from multiple directions. Trump publicly stated he hopes Hasset "remains in office," ending with "stay tuned"—the market generally interprets this as Hasset likely no longer being a core candidate on the final list. More intriguingly, Hasset himself also actively sent signals, publicly stating that "Woorh and Rieder would both be excellent Federal Reserve Chairs."

The combined effect of these signals is quite clear: market expectations for the chair candidate have shifted from "multiple candidates in play" to Woorh's sole leading position. Political statements, public comments, and prediction market data resonate, forming a highly consistent directional judgment. For financial markets, this means the uncertainty about future monetary policy style is decreasing.

Why is this so important for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies)? Because who the chair is influences long-term policy tone far more than a single meeting decision. When expectations start to be priced in early, the real market moves often occur before the official announcement.

Next, the market should focus not on "whether it will change," but on—if Woorh ultimately takes the position, how will the policy path be priced? That is the core variable for the next phase.