The mystery of Bitcoin's birth: Market speculation and technical analysis surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto's true identity

As HBO releases the documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” discussions within the crypto community are intensifying over the true identity of Bitcoin’s creator. On Polymarket, the probabilities assigned to multiple candidates fluctuate daily, reflecting market participants’ perspectives on this greatest mystery in crypto history.

The Market’s Perspective on Satoshi Nakamoto: Interpreting Probability Fluctuations on Polymarket

In the Polymarket betting market, the likelihood of previously less-noticed individuals is rapidly rising. Notably, the probabilities for pioneers of the smart contract concept are significantly influencing market sentiment. Meanwhile, support for some once-favored candidates is gradually declining, indicating a diversification of opinions among market participants.

Contributions of Candidates from a Technical Perspective

Nick Szabo’s Technical Potential

Nick Szabo, a renowned computer scientist, is a pioneer who proposed the concept of smart contracts between 1994 and 1997. More importantly, before Bitcoin’s emergence, he announced a concept called “Bit Gold,” which bears remarkable similarity to Bitcoin’s fundamental design. From a technical construction standpoint, Nick Szabo undoubtedly possesses the expertise necessary to implement the Bitcoin system.

Against this technical background, Elon Musk has publicly commented, “Nick Szabo claims he’s not Satoshi, but he seems to be the person most responsible for the evolution of the ideas behind Bitcoin.” Linguistically, a 2014 study by Aston University pointed out notable stylistic similarities between the language patterns in the Bitcoin white paper and Szabo’s writings.

Adam Back’s Proof-of-Work Design

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, is the designer of Bitcoin’s core proof-of-work (PoW) algorithm. His Hashcash algorithm was originally developed as a spam control technology but later evolved into research on electronic currencies. Having had direct contact with Satoshi Nakamoto early on, he is one of the individuals most familiar with Bitcoin’s technical foundation.

In a recent interview, Adam Back made statements indirectly denying being Satoshi, but it is believed he has the most detailed knowledge of Bitcoin’s early development. His founding of Blockstream in 2014 and gathering multiple Bitcoin Core developers demonstrate his deep involvement in the ecosystem’s development.

Involvement of Key Figures in the Crypto Community

Len Sassaman and the Early Cypherpunk Movement

In the crypto community, Len Sassaman was an early advocate of cypherpunk ideals focused on privacy and freedom. As a leader in P2P network research, he contributed to PGP encryption technology and open-source privacy solutions. Bitcoin exemplifies the best implementation of these cypherpunk ideals, and his legacy is embedded within the Bitcoin nodes. His death is memorialized in block 138725, representing the highest respect within the tech community.

His friend Justin stated, “Len believed in permissionless, open networks. I wouldn’t be surprised if he built something like that.” The coinciding timing of Satoshi Nakamoto’s disappearance and Sassaman’s death led to speculation, but his widow, Meredith L Patterson, recently clarified in media interviews that this was not the case and stated she had no contact during HBO’s interview.

David Kleiman’s Cryptographic Background

David Kleiman was a significant figure in cryptography. With a military background and later working on cryptographic tools for the U.S. government, he was a regular contributor to the Cryptography and Security mailing list and participated in the Metzdowd Cryptography list on October 31, 2008, when Satoshi Nakamoto announced Bitcoin. His technical expertise and long-term involvement in related mailing lists provide grounds for considering him as a candidate.

The Significance of Satoshi Nakamoto’s True Identity

Who Satoshi Nakamoto is holds importance beyond mere historical curiosity. Understanding the lineage of thinkers who sought to protect freedom and privacy through cryptography—from the cypherpunk movement to today’s expansive blockchain industry—is essential to grasping Bitcoin’s core essence.

Regardless of Satoshi Nakamoto’s true identity, behind it lies the intellectual legacy of multiple thinkers advocating for freedom, privacy, and decentralized systems. The technical visions presented by these pioneers form the foundation of today’s blockchain revolution, and by tracing their footprints, we can deepen our understanding of the original purpose of cryptographic technology.