Measuring the true value of Lighter: Are the $6 billion to $12.5 billion valuations overrated or just the beginning

Lighter is approaching TGE soon, and market opinions are divided. Some dismiss it as “just another perpetual contract DEX” and see little chance of competing with Hyperliquid. However, looking at on-chain data tells a very different story.

The Reality Indicated by Numbers

First, let’s confirm that Lighter is not just a “toy exchange” through its actual performance:

• TVL: $1.44 billion
• Open Interest (OI): $1.7 billion
• Monthly Trading Volume: approximately $248.3 billion
• Revenue over the past year: approximately $16.79 million

A monthly trading volume exceeding $200 billion indicates a scale of implementation, not just hype for a new project. The annual revenue of $16.8 million is also a strong signal, not a weak one.

Looking at the risk structure, Lighter’s OI/TVL ratio is 1.18, lower than Hyperliquid’s 1.82 and Aster’s 1.92. This suggests it is not overly leveraged but maintains a solid liquidity buffer. This aligns with its positioning as an “infrastructure-type” platform.

Where is the Fixed Point of Valuation?

Lower Bound (Bearish): $1.5 billion FDV
Based on the VC funding round (raising $68 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion).

Market Indication: $4.2 billion FDV
Calculated from OTC market point prices (around $90 per point) and airdrop distribution (about 25%).

Neutral Fair Value: $7.0–7.5 billion FDV
If TVL stabilizes and we compare multiples with similar platforms (FDV/TVL), Hyperliquid (5.8x) and Aster (4.2x), then with a TVL of 1.44B, multiplying by 5 yields approximately $7.2 billion.

Three Accelerators Setting the Upper Limit of Valuation

1. Unlocking Spot Markets (Path to Scale)

Currently, Lighter only lists WETH spot, but this restriction can turn into an opportunity. The spot market offers:

• Attracting a broader user base (low barrier for beginners)
• High stickiness for TVL accumulation (long-term holding motivation unlike perpetuals)
• Easier to leverage advantages like narrower spreads and lower costs (e.g., 0% fee on ETH spot)

While spot lock-up is still around $32 million, adding hundreds of assets gradually could become a growth engine for TVL.

2. Strategic Positioning in RWA (Real-World Assets)

This is the biggest differentiator between Lighter and other Perp DEXs.

Current:

• RWA perpetual contract OI: Lighter $273 million > Hyperliquid $249 million
• RWA trading volume: Lighter $484 million > Hyperliquid $327 million

Initial markets tend to concentrate liquidity. Once spreads narrow and execution quality improves, more traders will be attracted, creating a positive cycle. The on-chain RWA scale already exceeds $18.9 billion and is growing.

The real unlocking point for RWA is “spot” trading. Tokenized stocks, FX, and commodities spot trading on Lighter could attract new demand (non-crypto natives), rapidly expanding TAM (Total Addressable Market).

3. Connecting with Financial Tech Distribution Networks (2026 Ambition)

If large distribution platforms like Robinhood become gateways for tokenized assets, the value of backend settlement infrastructure will soar. “Distribution capability” is the biggest defensive barrier in the trading industry.

Lighter’s potential to become the backbone for securities firms and fintech companies means not just increasing crypto users but bringing traditional financial liquidity onto the chain.

The 2026 Roadmap as the Key

The leaked roadmap includes:

• ZK EVM support
• Deepening of RWA spot and perpetual contracts
• Portfolio margin (improving capital efficiency)
• Mobile app (strengthening retail distribution)
• Prediction markets (ecosystem expansion)

These are not isolated features but a coherent expansion scenario. 2025 is about building a track record, while 2026 is a turning point for scale.

Scenario-Based Valuation Ranges

Bearish Scenario ($1.5–$4.2 billion FDV):
Selling pressure at TGE + macro bearishness. After initial volatility, stabilize around the implied point price.

Base Scenario ($4.2–$7.5 billion FDV):
Maintaining TVL + continuing to lead in trading volume/OI. Valuation based on multiples of similar platforms.

Bullish Scenario ($7.5–$12.5 billion+ FDV):
Progress in RWA spot trading is assured + progress in fintech distribution becomes visible. The market begins to take this story seriously.

Essential Risks to Watch

• Macro Environment: Total crypto market cap dropped from an all-time high of $4.27 trillion to $2.96 trillion. Continued bearishness could pressure all assets.
• Post-TGE Selling Pressure: Almost certain. The key is whether TVL and trading volume can hold after initial volatility.
• Accelerated Competition: Hyperliquid’s product strength is formidable. Functional replication can happen quickly.
• Story vs. Execution Gap: If RWA spot and fintech connections take longer, overheating risks and subsequent corrections are possible.

Conclusion: Backward Calculation from Data

Lazy valuation methods end with “Perp DEX = Hyperliquid competitor = discount applied.”

But a more honest valuation begins with recognizing that:

1. Scale Already Exists: TVL $1.44B, monthly trading volume $248.3B, annual revenue $16.8M
2. RWA Has Structural Advantages: Leading in OI and trading volume, leveraging initial market concentration
3. Roadmap Is an Expansion Scenario: Perps → Spot → Margin → New Markets
4. Distribution Will Change Everything: If fintech connections partially materialize, it will surpass “just another crypto exchange”

Therefore, $1.5 billion is the bottom, and $4.2 billion is the cleanest market anchor point. If TVL remains stable and catalysts continue to emerge, valuation discussions above $7 billion are reasonable.

The execution of the 2026 roadmap will be the real test.