Multiple geopolitical conflicts are emerging simultaneously, with BTC hovering around 91,000. Can the market risk premium break through?

Global Tensions Rise, Crypto Market Hedging Sentiment Rebounds

Recent international developments can be described as “twists and turns.” Russia reiterated its stance in the US-Ukraine peace talks, stating that if peace agreements do not meet certain conditions, military operations will continue; meanwhile, the US is also escalating its actions in Latin America—expanding operations against Venezuela and increasing military presence in the Caribbean. This “dual-front escalation” has significantly increased global market uncertainty.

On a macro level, geopolitical risks have not cooled but are instead showing structural diffusion. The pricing logic for commodities such as energy and shipping has undergone noticeable adjustments, and capital is beginning to reassess the probability of risks across multiple regions simultaneously. This shift in sentiment has directly impacted the crypto market—being a highly volatile asset, Bitcoin is feeling the pressure of risk-hedging sentiment.

Technical Challenges: 91,000 Becomes a Key Resistance, Support Faces Tests

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s current performance is not optimistic. According to the latest data, BTC is trading around 93.18K, but this has not changed its long-term pressure near 91,000—the price level has become a clear short-term resistance zone.

Buyers and sellers are repeatedly battling at high levels, forming a typical “standoff”:

• Upper Resistance: The 91,000 level still carries dense liquidation risks, with strong seller defense
• Lower Support: The 89,000–88,000 range is the main gathering area for defensive capital
• Extreme Scenario: If the 89,000–88,000 support is broken, the chart may further test the mid-term bull-bear dividing line at 86,000

From a leverage structure perspective, the market has not yet formed a clear directional consensus. Both the liquidation risks in the upper resistance zone and the defensive capital in the lower support zone are relatively ample, suggesting that the upcoming market may oscillate within this range.

Market Sentiment Reversal: Conservative and Short-term Characteristics Are Obvious

It is noteworthy that the entire crypto market’s capital behavior has undergone a significant psychological shift. The previously optimistic sentiment towards risk assets is being replaced by “conservatism” and “short-termism.” This reflects that market participants, when reassessing risks, are more inclined toward quick in-and-out strategies rather than long-term holdings.

Key Variables: Geopolitical Cooling vs. Risk Reassessment

Bitunix analysts believe that the current market is in a “layered phase”—macroeconomic geopolitical re-pricing, technical high-pressure levels, expectations of loose global monetary policies, and slowing labor data are all acting simultaneously.

The core drivers of short-term market movements are not technical breakthroughs but rather:

1. Whether substantive easing occurs in geopolitical conflicts
2. Whether risk capital is willing to re-engage with volatility
3. Whether macro liquidity expectations will continue to support the market

Therefore, the key is to observe actual changes in the geopolitical situation. If conflicts substantially ease, risk aversion sentiment may quickly dissipate, driving a rebound in risk assets; conversely, if tensions escalate further, pressure around 91,000 for Bitcoin may continue to intensify.