Gold loses momentum: bears attack support at $4,400

The accelerating sell-off after the failed breach of resistance Gold (XAU/USD) records its second consecutive session decline, retreating on Thursday after failing to hold the $4,500 level. The bears have now shifted their focus to the previous support zone around $4,400, which aligns with broader weakness in precious metal prices. Although speculation about geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, China, Iran, and Greenland still circulates among investors, it seems that this issue is taking a backseat. Instead, the market is focusing on Friday’s US employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls), which could provide a clear signal regarding the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions.

Technical situation worsens for bulls The current XAU/USD valuation at $4,428.46 indicates that gold is approaching a key support at $4,400—a zone of particular significance due to its convergence with the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), which has acted as resistance since November. The same level corresponds to the highs recorded on December 31 and January 2.

The formation of lower highs observed this week, combined with technical signals indicating bearish dominance, suggests a more significant correction could occur. Technical analysts point to two key warnings: the MACD histogram has shifted into negative territory, and the MACD line has fallen below the signal line—direct signals of increasing selling pressure. At the same time, the RSI indicator has broken below the 50 threshold, entering the bearish zone, confirming a change in market dynamics.

Scenarios upon support breakdown If the defense at $4,400 collapses, the bears’ next target would be the January 2 low zone at $4,309, followed by the December 16 and 31 lows around $4,270. Conversely, if the bulls attempt a counterattack, the first obstacle is Tuesday’s high near $4,500, while the historical maximum from December 26 at $4,449 remains an important reference point for market observers.