How long can Bitcoin bulls hold on before the 200-week moving average is broken?

Bitcoin experienced a rally at the beginning of the year, with the current price climbing to $90.19K. However, the focus of analysts on the subsequent trend centers on a key technical indicator—the 200-week moving average. According to renowned cycle analyst Cole Garner, this moving average is a decisive factor in determining whether Bitcoin can enter a “full bull market.” Currently, the support level of the 200-week moving average is at $27,235. A break below this level would completely overturn the bullish argument.

Whales and retail investors united, bullish signals emerge

Although Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation, investor behavior patterns reveal strong optimistic signals. Cole Garner emphasizes that the continued accumulation by whale whales is becoming the core support for the bull market. In recent analysis, he pointed out that, according to Jarvis Labs’ research, “months-long buying frenzy” is still ongoing, and this accumulation trend directly positively influences Bitcoin’s price outlook.

Meanwhile, technical analyst CryptoCon is paying close attention to changes in investor structure. Compared to the bear market during 2022–2023, the current cycle presents a completely different scenario—retail investors are exiting in large numbers, while whale whales still hold their coins tightly. CryptoCon notes, “The ratio of small investors to whale whales is surging,” and this indicator historically has signaled strong upward price movements whenever it spikes.

He emphasizes, “This round’s market sentiment is on the bullish side. The ruthless sell-off by whales in the previous cycle is no longer happening, which provides significant momentum for prices.” This shift in investor structure is a typical feature of emerging bull markets.

The 200-week moving average as a defensive line; a breakout is needed to confirm a bull market

Cole Garner particularly highlights that monitoring whale activity on the Bitfinex exchange is extremely critical. The ratio of large holders’ Bitcoin to stablecoins on this exchange often leads short- to medium-term market predictions, exerting more influence than any other entity in the crypto space. Based on this indicator’s performance, Bitcoin has shown typical behavior before each major bullish advance.

However, the exact timing of a price breakout remains uncertain. Cole Garner personally expects it to occur in Q3, reasoning that the market still faces seasonal summer pressures—which are stronger than most realize. He believes that the risk of a sharp decline still exists, “but the real turning point might have to wait until September.”

The key defensive line for the market is the 200-week moving average. As long as the trend of this average remains intact, the bullish case can stay valid. If Bitcoin falls below the current support of $27,235 on the 200-week moving average, the entire bullish narrative will be overturned. Therefore, investors should closely watch this technical level—it is not only a price support but also the dividing line for the establishment of a bull market.

Waiting for a turning point; technical and fundamental signals corroborate

Combining indicators such as whale accumulation, investor structure, and stablecoin liquidity, there is currently ample bullish expectation. However, whether this can develop into a full bull cycle depends on whether the 200-week moving average can hold. The market has a few weeks to verify these signals’ authenticity, with September potentially serving as a watershed—determining whether Bitcoin will reach new highs or revert to sideways consolidation.