#加密市场观察 Latest News Analysis: Regulatory Favorability Dominates, Bull and Bear Factors Intertwined

(1) Core Positive: Trump Signs Cryptocurrency Executive Order, Reshaping Regulatory Landscape
On January 23rd, local time, Trump signed an executive order on cryptocurrencies, bringing significant benefits to the industry.
Key points include: establishing a Digital Asset Market Working Group, clarifying the federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, assessing national digital asset reserves; fully banning the issuance and promotion of CBDCs and existing R&D; SEC revokes SAB 121 accounting policy, lifting accounting restrictions on banks holding crypto assets. This move breaks the strict regulatory logic, provides clear certainty, boosts market confidence, and becomes the core support for the bottoming and stabilization of coin prices.
(2) Macro Assistance: Trump Pressures Rate Cuts, Weakening US Dollar Benefits Risk Assets
At the Davos Forum, Trump called on the Federal Reserve to immediately cut interest rates, promoting synchronized global rate cuts. CME data shows a 95% probability of maintaining rates in January, with expectations for a rate cut in June rising to 50%. As a result, on January 23rd, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to close at 108.11, weakening in the US session. The appeal of crypto assets priced in USD increased, providing macro support.
(3) Capital Flow: ETF Inflows Slightly Decline, Institutional Divergence Continues
Bitcoin spot ETF funds experienced short-term fluctuations, with net inflows dropping to $982.9 million on January 23rd. Grayscale GBTC still shows net outflows, while BlackRock IBIT and Bitwise BITB saw slight inflows. Despite differences among institutions, the long-term allocation logic remains unchanged, supporting the 88,500 range. Ethereum shows no significant ETF fund movements, but its network validators have exited the queue and withdrawals are completed instantly, forming hidden support.
(4) Market Linkage and Sentiment: US Stocks Open Lower, Leverage Play Eases
US stocks opened lower on Thursday, with the Dow down 0.04% and the Nasdaq down 0.50%. Market optimism about Trump’s policies remains, and crypto-related stocks showed mild volatility. Over the past 24 hours, the total liquidation reached $647 million, with Ethereum contracts accounting for a high proportion. Long and short liquidations are becoming more balanced, easing leverage play and returning the market to rationality.