Cryptocurrency Market Performance Verification: Did VanEck's 2024 Prediction Come True?

In 2024, the predictions of the 15 items in the cryptocurrency market announced by major asset management firm VanEck drew widespread attention across the industry. Now, in January 2026, it is time to evaluate how closely these predictions have been realized and what factors will drive the future growth of cryptocurrencies. Based on the latest market data, we analyze the current status of each forecast and the outlook moving forward.

Spot Bitcoin ETF and US Economic Trends

VanEck predicted that a US recession would serve as a tailwind for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The Bitcoin ETF approved in Q1 2024 recorded substantial capital inflows as forecasted. VanEck estimated inflows of around $2.4 billion, but actual inflows exceeded this, establishing spot Bitcoin ETFs as a mainstream product in the cryptocurrency market.

As of January 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has hovered around $87,650, completely surpassing the pessimistic scenario of $30,000 predicted in 2024. Instead, due to the US interest rate environment and macroeconomic uncertainties, institutional demand for Bitcoin has continued to grow. The low fees (about 10 basis points) and ease of access provided by spot ETFs have played a crucial role in attracting funds from traditional financial institutions into the crypto market.

Bitcoin Halving and Mining Industry Restructuring

The scheduled fourth halving of Bitcoin in April 2024 did not cause significant turmoil as VanEck analyzed. With the reduction in new issuance, less profitable miners withdrew from the market, accelerating the concentration of large-scale miners with access to low-cost electricity. The improvement in the financial health of listed mining companies was a basis for the forecast, but in reality, from late 2024 to early 2025, some smaller operators have re-entered due to adjustments in mining difficulty.

Post-halving, Bitcoin’s price did not exceed the predicted $48,000 level but showed a more gradual upward trend. This suggests that institutional investors entered more cautiously than expected. The relative outperformance of low-cost mining companies (CLSK, RIOT) was realized, but achieving the “10x growth” level forecasted was limited.

Record Highs in Bitcoin

VanEck predicted that Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in Q4 2024 and boldly forecasted breaking $100,000 by December. In reality, Bitcoin’s price showed an upward trend in the second half of 2024, but did not break $100,000, instead forming resistance around approximately $99,000. This prediction was partially missed.

As of January 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $87,650 (down 1.73% in the past 24 hours), reflecting political fluctuations and macroeconomic changes affecting market sentiment. Nonetheless, compared to the lows below $17,000 in 2022, Bitcoin’s medium-term upward trend continues, and the outlook remains optimistic for further growth.

Ethereum and Solana’s Relative Performance

VanEck forecasted that Ethereum would outperform Bitcoin but not excessively. The realization has been moderate; in 2024, Ethereum maintained a market cap of approximately $34.623 billion, with a 24-hour volatility of -2.85%.

Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) has contested a top 3 position among blockchain projects as predicted. As of January 2026, Solana’s price is $122.23 (down 3.84% in the past 24 hours), experiencing significant decline. Over the past year, it has fallen by 52.37%, indicating that the bullish scenario (such as spot ETF applications) did not materialize fully. However, maintaining a 2.44% market share and ongoing ecosystem development continue to position Solana as a promising area for future growth in the crypto space.

Market Domination of L2 Blockchains

Following the implementation of EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding), the prediction that L2 layers would strengthen their dominance within the Ethereum ecosystem has been partially realized. Currently, Arbitrum (ARB) is priced at $0.17, and Optimism (OP) at $0.29, both showing significant increases since 2024.

The forecast that DEX trading volume would double Ethereum’s and that transaction counts would increase tenfold by Q4 2024 requires substantial upward revision. While L2 solutions have succeeded in reducing transaction costs and improving processing speeds, liquidity fragmentation has led to a more pronounced concentration among 2-3 core players. The view that Arbitrum and Optimism will dominate the L2 market aligns closely with current market realities.

NFT Market Recovery Trajectory

VanEck predicted a recovery of NFT activity to record highs, but actual market trends have shown a more gradual rebound. However, growth in Bitcoin-based NFTs (using the Ordinals protocol) has been remarkable, and the forecast that the ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin NFT issuance would approach 3:1 has largely been realized.

Stacks (STX) is currently priced at $0.29, and while it has not yet entered the top 25 tokens by market cap, its position as a Bitcoin ecosystem-related asset has been established. Immutable (IMX), at $0.24, has advanced in implementing gaming platforms, but the goal of “over 1 million active users daily” has not yet been achieved.

Changes in Exchange Power Dynamics

The prediction that Binance would lose its number-one position in spot trading has come true. Competitors such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget have expanded their market shares, and ongoing reorganization to adapt to regulatory changes is underway. Coinbase is exploring new revenue streams through Layer2 blockchain-related businesses, confirming the forecasted strengthening of its position.

Growth of Stablecoin Market

The total supply of stablecoins has surpassed $200 billion, reaching a record high, confirming VanEck’s prediction. The market share of USDC (currently priced at $1.00, with a circulation of 72.4 trillion tokens) is recovering, and with the implementation of MiCA (EU regulation), demand for regulation-compliant stablecoins is increasing.

Expansion of DEX Market Share

The growth of decentralized exchanges centered on Uniswap (UNI, currently priced at $4.62) in terms of spot trading share aligns with forecasts. The activity of DEXs on high-throughput chains like Solana, along with advances in account abstraction wallets, continues to accelerate on-chain trading, with no change in the overall outlook.

Bitcoin Staking and Remittance Business

Bitcoin staking is increasingly recognized as a promising emerging sector from 2024 to 2025. Protocols like Amboss and Fedi have lowered technical barriers for Bitcoin holders to participate in remittances. Projects such as Babylon (Cosmos-based) are opening pathways for Bitcoin holders to serve as security providers on other blockchains through proof-of-stake integrations.

Maturity of Blockchain Gaming Market

Immutable’s platform, with its “Passport” that manages wallets and enables single sign-on, is paving the way for mainstream Web3 gaming. While the goal of “over 1 million active users daily” remains distant, the expansion of Immutable’s AAA game development pipeline has increased expectations for the second half of 2026. IMX (currently priced at $0.24) continues to serve as an indicator of relatively sustained capital inflow into the gaming sector despite overall market downturns.

DeFi Market and Solana’s Rise

Although the prediction that Pyth (currently priced at $0.06) would surpass Chainlink’s TVS (Total Value Secured) was missed timing-wise, its position within the Solana ecosystem has strengthened. The revival of DeFi TVL and increased transaction activity on Solana have led to the emergence of new protocol detection mechanisms, raising the relative value of new oracle projects like Pyth.

Outlook for DePin (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure) Market

Helium (HNT, currently priced at $1.14) expanding into 5G and Hivemapper (HONEY, currently priced at $0.01) with its decentralized mapping project are partially fulfilling the forecast. Reaching 100,000 5G subscribers is a long-term goal, but the effectiveness of incentive models is being demonstrated across various regions. The DePin market as a whole remains in early growth stages, with future developments after 2026 closely watched.

Corporate Cryptocurrency Holdings and Accounting Innovation

The prediction that revised FASB accounting standards would lead to increased corporate holdings of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has only been partially realized. However, large institutional investors and funds are steadily incorporating Bitcoin, and corporate acquisitions are expected to accelerate after 2026.

DeFi and Compliance Integration

The expansion of institutional liquidity through KYC-enabled interfaces like Uniswap (UNI) is progressing as forecasted. The growth of regulation-compliant DEX interfaces is likely to further accelerate traditional capital inflows into DeFi.

Summary: Will Cryptocurrencies Continue to Grow?

VanEck’s 2024 forecasts largely correctly identified the medium-term growth trend of the crypto market. The expansion of Bitcoin ETFs, intensified competition among L2 blockchains, growth in the stablecoin market, and progress in regulation-compliant services are all on track.

As of January 2026, the current prices of major assets such as Bitcoin ($87,650), Ethereum ($2,870), and Solana ($122.23) still hold significant medium-term upside potential. Overall, the cryptocurrency market remains in a “growth ahead” phase. However, this growth will not be driven solely by price increases but by multifaceted development in usability, regulation, and ecosystem robustness, which will underpin market trust and expansion.