Bitcoin this year is completely different from 2022 - From the personal market to the institutional era

There is a common misconception in the market analysis community: those who constantly compare the current Bitcoin price movements to 2022 have missed the most important point. Although short-term charts may look similar on the surface, the market’s nature has completely changed — from investor structure, macroeconomic context, to technical patterns. Those looking for signs of a “Market Bear 2.0” may be disappointed, as Bitcoin today has entered a completely different phase.

Investor Structure - The Core Transition

To understand why Bitcoin this year is different, first look at who is holding it. In 2020-2022, the Bitcoin market was mainly driven by retail investors with very high leverage speculation. When the market shifts, these investors often panic sell, increasing selling pressure and driving prices down.

But from 2023 onwards, the introduction of Bitcoin ETF funds has brought in a “structured long-term holder” — financial institutions, investment funds, and large asset managers. These investors not only have a long-term mindset but also hold a portion of Bitcoin supply, effectively locking it up. What is the result? Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased significantly:

• Historical volatility (2020-2022): 80%-150%
• Current volatility: 30%-60%

This change is not a minor detail — it proves that Bitcoin’s asset nature has matured. A market dominated by institutions is more stable, less volatile, and less likely to experience shocks at the 2022 level.

Macroeconomic Environment - From Tightening to Easing

Although it seems we are facing similar concerns, the global economic context has shifted in the opposite direction. In March 2022, the US was deep into a tightening cycle — high inflation, rising interest rates, liquidity withdrawal. Central banks were raising rates to combat inflation, putting downward pressure on all risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Today, the picture is entirely different. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a downward trend, and risk-free interest rates are also declining. More importantly, the AI revolution is changing the long-term inflation outlook — instead of concerns about persistent price increases, the world is discussing long-term deflation. Elon Musk has also publicly supported this view, which partly confirms a new mindset trend in the financial world.

This means central banks are injecting liquidity back into the system, not withdrawing it. Capital is gradually showing a “risk-on” nature, meaning investors are willing to chase high-yield assets rather than just seek safety. Bitcoin, as a “high-risk, high-reward” asset, becomes an attractive target in this environment.

Data even provides clearer evidence: since 2020, Bitcoin has shown a strong inverse correlation with inflation changes — when inflation rises, Bitcoin falls; when inflation slows, Bitcoin rises. In the deflationary trend forecasted by the AI revolution, this correlation supports Bitcoin. Similarly, Bitcoin also shows a very strong correlation with the US liquidity index — which is currently breaking both short-term and long-term downtrends, signaling a new liquidity cycle is emerging.

Technical Pattern - Sign of a Trap or a Farewell?

On the technical side, Bitcoin’s structure also shows significant differences. In 2021-2022, Bitcoin formed a “double M top” pattern on the weekly chart — a pattern often associated with long-cycle market tops, which suppress price movements for an extended period.

In contrast, by 2025, Bitcoin has broken above the weekly uptrend channel. From a probabilistic perspective, this is more likely a “bull trap” — a short-term dip before a rebound back into the channel — rather than a sign of a sustainable bear market like in 2022.

Of course, it cannot be entirely ruled out that the current movement could turn into a long-term bear market. However, note an important detail: the price range from 80,850 to 62,000 USD has undergone accumulation and large-scale token exchanges. This means major institutions have used this price zone to build their positions. In other words, the risk/reward ratio at this level is much more favorable for long-term investors — with greater upside potential than downside risk.

Hard Conditions for a Recurrent Bear Market

If we want the market to become a “2022 bear market,” certain specific conditions must be met. These are not mere guesses or normal financial forecasts but strict requirements:

First, a new inflation shock or a major geopolitical crisis of similar scale to 2022 must occur — a risk level capable of fundamentally changing the economic environment.

Second, central banks must restart rate hikes or return to quantitative tightening — withdrawing liquidity from the system, not injecting more.

Third, Bitcoin’s price must decisively break below and sustain under the 80,850 USD level for an extended period — a signal that large institutions are selling significant volumes.

Until all three conditions are met, any statements claiming “the market has entered a bear phase” are premature and speculative judgments, not conclusions based on rational analysis.

Core Difference - Why Bitcoin Today Is Not Bitcoin in 2022

In summary, the fundamental difference between Bitcoin today and in 2022 lies in the market’s nature. 2022 was a “cryptocurrency native bear market” — triggered by panic selling from retail investors and chain liquidation of leverage. It was an endogenous crisis rooted in market structure.

Today, Bitcoin has entered the “institutional era” with much higher maturity. Characteristics of this era include:

• Stable underlying demand from long-term institutional investors
• A portion of supply locked long-term, reducing supply-demand volatility
• Volatility at a more institutional level, rather than stormy fluctuations

These factors were absent in 2022. They are the result of market maturation and create a Bitcoin with a completely different economic essence — not just a minor change, but an epochal transition.

Therefore, when analysts compare short-term movements between today and 2022, they are missing the bigger picture — a picture where Bitcoin’s fundamental nature has completely changed.