2026: The Era of Institutionalization in the Cryptocurrency Industry, ETH Mining, and Comprehensive Restructuring

2026 marks a historic turning point for the global cryptocurrency industry. Based on outlook reports from over ten leading financial organizations such as Messari, Grayscale, a16z, BlackRock, Bitwise, Fidelity, Coinbase, Galaxy, VanEck, and 21Shares, a clear picture is emerging: the industry is no longer dominated by short-term speculation sentiment but is transitioning into a global financial infrastructure platform. Ethereum mining (ETH mining) and other digital assets are gradually being replaced by a dynamic model driven by institutional capital flows, regulatory clarity, and the integration of AI technology with the crypto economy.

The Three Pillars: Industry-Wide Consensus

From Traditional Cycles to the Institutional Era

Organizations like Bitwise, Fidelity, and Grayscale agree that what Bitcoin experienced—the four-year cycle linked to halving events—no longer determines price. Grayscale, in its “2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era” report, states that “the valuation increase in 2026 will mark the end of the four-year cycle theory.”

This is not just a historical observation—it depicts a fundamental economic reality. Fidelity Digital Assets found that Bitcoin’s annual volatility has decreased to 42%, a historic low often signaling the emergence of new price peaks. More importantly, Bitwise predicts ETF funds will absorb over 100% of the newly issued Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana supply. This has core implications: market momentum is shifting entirely from the supply side (mining volume, ETH mining, or other assets) to the demand side (continuous allocations from pension funds, grant funds, and professional asset managers).

These developments mean that the long-term bullish narrative—driven by fundamentals such as improved P/E ratios, steady cash flows, and clear regulatory frameworks—is replacing the old story of speculation and sentiment.

Stablecoins: From Financial Tools to Global Infrastructure

No organization doubts the role of stablecoins in 2026. On-chain data reveals a startling picture: total stablecoin transaction volume in 2025 reached $33 trillion, with USDC around $18.3 trillion and USDT approximately $13.3 trillion. In comparison, Visa’s total transaction volume in the same period was $16.7 trillion—stablecoins are nearly twice Visa’s volume, and this gap is expected to widen.

a16z, in its late-2025 outlook, emphasizes: “Stablecoins will transition entirely from financial instruments to the foundational payment layer of the Internet.” This shift is not just theoretical. With the GENIUS Act passed in summer 2025—requiring stablecoin issuers to hold 100% USD reserves or short-term Treasury bonds, with monthly public disclosures—the regulatory framework is now ready. Coinbase forecasts stablecoin market capitalization will reach $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028, while 21Shares and Galaxy expect surpassing the $1 trillion mark by 2026.

This signifies an important reality: stablecoins are no longer just trading tools within the ecosystem. They are becoming the fundamental global payment mechanism, directly challenging the ACH system of Western economies.

Clear Regulatory Framework: The Key to Traditional Capital Access

The GENIUS Act is just a precursor. The “CLARITY Act”—a more comprehensive market structure bill—was passed by the House with a vote of 294-134 in summer 2025 and is now before the Senate Banking Committee. The market anticipates a major breakthrough in legal frameworks in 2026.

The CLARITY Act will delineate asset management authority between the CFTC (commodities and derivatives regulators) and the SEC (securities regulators). More importantly, it will provide a “safe harbor” for DeFi participants, reducing the legal uncertainty that developers have had to bear.

Grayscale explicitly states that a bipartisan market structure law will become U.S. law by 2026. Its significance extends far beyond monthly price fluctuations. It lays the groundwork for unlocking hundreds of billions of institutional capital, clarifying asset classifications, and removing legal barriers. Bitwise clearly states that passing the CLARITY Act will trigger Ethereum and Solana to set new all-time highs.

Deep Integration: AI, Ethereum Mining, and the Future Economy

a16z, Coinbase, and Messari all focus on describing the future of AI agents combined with the crypto economy. The consensus is specific: AI agents need permissionless payment networks and protocols enabling high-frequency microtransactions machine-to-machine (M2M).

Coinbase points out: “AI × crypto: protocols like x402 facilitate payments for high-frequency transactions, supporting micro-economies M2M.” This opens an intriguing aspect: as AI agents automatically mine Ethereum or other assets, or execute sophisticated transactions, they require a seamless, instant payment layer. Blockchain provides exactly that.

Grayscale lists “AI-centric solutions requiring blockchain” as one of the core themes for 2026, believing blockchain can provide verifiable computation and data for AI. BlackRock expects AI systems will drive Bitcoin miners and other mining activities, creating an interaction of two “superforces”—AI and crypto—that will accelerate capital-intensive transformation.

Value Shift: From Protocols to Bountiful Applications

The old theory that “the protocol layer captures most of the value” is gradually losing its validity. Galaxy publicly supports the “Fat App Thesis,” pointing out that “the capture of economic value is shifting from protocols to applications.” L1 public chains will become platforms with integrated revenue-generating applications, rather than just providing “spaces” for applications to operate.

a16z emphasizes that application layers—permanent contracts, wallets, DEXs, prediction platforms—will take the main share of revenue. Coinbase proposes “Tokenomics 2.0,” where tokens are directly linked to revenue generated by applications, with the proliferation of dedicated application-specific chains creating a “network of networks.”

The current consensus is: value will concentrate in application layers that generate cash flows, have user interfaces, and benefit from brand effects—super apps, wallets, prediction platforms, and mining tools. Underlying public chains will evolve into utility payment layers.

Deep Differences: Where Alpha Opportunities and Hidden Risks Reside

While industry-wide consensus exists, organizations still hold profound differences in specific implementation approaches and potential market outcomes. These precise differences—observed among leading organizations—are where significant alpha opportunities or major risks emerge.

Divergence in Bitcoin Fund Flows

On one side, represented by Bitwise and Grayscale, the view is that Bitcoin will break the traditional cycle, establishing new all-time highs in the first half of 2026. Bitwise argues that ETFs will absorb over 100% of new supply, creating strong demand support—a relentless upward pull.

On the other side, represented by Galaxy and VanEck, 2026 will be a year of significant volatility and uncertainty. Galaxy’s analysis of options data indicates market expectations for Bitcoin to fluctuate widely between $50,000 and $250,000—a reflection of high uncertainty. VanEck emphasizes that global macroeconomic factors will dominate price trends.

Core difference: can institutional capital flows fully hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty?

The Future of DATs (Digital Asset Treasuries) and Ethereum Mining Opportunities

Coinbase remains optimistic, predicting DATs will evolve into DATs 2.0, where holders can actively capture profits through staking, restaking, and cross-space trading. These tools will become truly professional on-chain asset management platforms.

Galaxy, however, adopts a highly cautious stance, predicting that while active support for holders exists, management risks become more complex. This directly impacts those wanting to mine Ethereum or other assets—they need to evaluate the fundamental DAT structure and its management risks.

This difference reflects a bigger question: do these automation tools truly create value for retail investors, or are they merely means for professional asset managers to compete?

These observations carry a single core message: the crypto industry is no longer a “disjointed market” driven by cycles and sentiment. It is transforming into a global financial infrastructure defined by cash flows, practical utility, and regulatory compliance. Investors no longer just evaluate cycles—they must precisely grasp alpha opportunities driven by AI-crypto integration, capital efficiency, value migration to application layers, and the evolving landscape of Ethereum mining and other asset extraction under growing structural consensus. This is the comprehensive outlook for 2026.