A wave of global risk aversion shaking the American coin market: Short-term correction phase of Bitcoin and Ethereum

“US Sell-off” transactions are causing significant ripples in the global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency market has also entered a rapid correction phase, led by the US coin market. From mid to late January, a “triple decline” scenario occurred where US stocks, bonds, and the dollar were sold off simultaneously, accelerating global risk aversion sentiment. As a result, gold hit an all-time high of $4,888 per ounce, while the entire crypto asset market is facing substantial volatility.

Deteriorating Global Financial Market Sentiment Hits US Coin Market

On January 20, triggered by a sharp plunge in Japanese long-term government bonds, a global risk aversion movement accelerated. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.311%, and the S&P 500 plummeted by 2.1%. The VIX index surged to its highest level since November last year, spreading anxiety across the entire market.

In this environment, funds flooded into hard assets, with gold reaching record highs. The announcement that the Polish central bank approved the purchase of 150 tons of gold also symbolized asset flight during global crises. Meanwhile, the US coin market reacted differently. Bitcoin fell below $90,000, and Ethereum declined from the $2,900 level. Institutional fund outflows also accelerated, with $483 million flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs and $230 million from Ethereum ETFs.

The 24-hour position liquidation amount reached $764 million, affecting approximately 140,000 investors. The greed and fear index recorded a “panic” level of 24, indicating extreme deterioration in market sentiment.

Short-term Bitcoin Divergence: Intense Debate Between Bulls and Bears

Bitcoin, the most volatile among US coins, is currently trading around (as of January 28, 2026), showing a complex market formation.

Bearish Warnings:
Leading bearish voices like Peter Brandt warn of a deep correction below $60,000 following a drop from $98,000. Cheds Trading suggests a lower limit between $35,000 and $45,000. Technically, the average holding price of MicroStrategy at $75,979 is seen as a key psychological support level, with recovery to the all-time high of $94,600 being crucial.

Bullish Claims:
On the other hand, bullish analysts like Il Capo and Sykodelic argue that current levels are at a critical support, and maintaining this could lead to targets of $100,000 to $112,000. Harvey Hunter notes that although selling pressure from stop-loss orders has increased, a bottom may be forming on the weekly chart.

The most significant evidence comes from on-chain data. According to Santiment monitoring, whale addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC increased their holdings by over 36,000 BTC in the past nine days. This indicates a strong divergence driven by “smart money,” and Garrett points out that “the current macroeconomic environment is completely different from 2022, with institutional participation through ETFs changing the market structure.”

Ethereum and Altcoins: Can They Withstand the Global Risk Aversion Wave?

Ethereum is currently trading around @E1@ (as of January 28, 2026), with the key challenge being to defend the $2,900 level. Technical analysis indicates that $2,700–$2,800 is a critical support zone, and a break below this could risk a decline to $1,700.

Analyst Krugman notes that Ethereum’s failure to break through the important $3,450 level confirms the validity of a bearish weekly pinbar pattern. Conversely, Harvey Hunter sees a forming symmetrical triangle pattern, and if support holds and ETH breaks above $3,350, a rebound toward the all-time high of $4,800 could be possible.

However, Arthur Hayes issues a serious warning: if Japan’s debt crisis causes the MOVE index to exceed 130, all risk assets, including Ethereum, could face a painful deleveraging process.

Solana, despite dropping below $130, continues to see whale accumulation according to on-chain data. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 SOL have increased significantly, and exchange supply has hit a two-year low. Meanwhile, meme coins are emerging as new speculative hotspots, with the “memes continue” tweet from the White House sparking a surge in the BSC chain’s “$memes,” which has reached a market cap of $20 million.

On-Chain Data Reveals Investor Psychology: Whale Accumulation and Meme Coin Rise

Amid ongoing global risk aversion, on-chain data shows complex and intriguing investor behaviors. Continuous accumulation by large holders (whales) suggests institutional investors see price adjustments as buying opportunities. Record highs in network activity and stablecoin supply also indicate preparations for new capital inflows.

Meanwhile, the combination of politics and meme coins has created a new wave of speculation. The White House’s official mention of meme coins has significantly influenced market psychology, accelerating diversification in the US coin market.

Future Challenges: Interplay of Macroeconomics and Market Structure

The biggest challenge facing the US coin market is macroeconomic uncertainty. If Japanese government bond yields and gold prices continue to surge, markets will remain under pressure. The independence of the Federal Reserve is being tested by lawsuits in the Supreme Court, and volatility in the US coin market may become the new normal.

However, institutional participation and bullish signals from on-chain indicators suggest the market could recover after a severe correction. With the BTC/gold exchange rate at historic lows, securing technical support at the 50-day moving average will be a key turning point.

Currently, the greed and fear index records a “panic” level of 24, and with market sentiment at an extreme, this could be a critical moment for long-term investors. Nonetheless, unless fundamental issues like geopolitical risks and fiscal discipline are addressed, overall volatility, including in the US coin market, is likely to persist.

Market Data Overview (as of 17:00, January 28, 2026)

• Bitcoin: $89,640 (24h change: +0.94%, 1-year change: -12.18%), 24h trading volume: $1.36 billion, market share: 56.50%
• Ethereum: $3,000 (24h change: +0.36%), 24h trading volume: $524 million, market share: 11.43%
• Solana: $126.09, 24h trading volume: $85.06 million
• Greed & Fear Index: 24 (panic level)
• Major ETF Outflows: Bitcoin ETF -$483 million, Ethereum ETF -$230 million

(Note: This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.)