Long-term holders slow down profit-taking, Bitcoin price rebound faces resistance

On-chain data reveals an interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin’s current price has rebounded to the key price range that previously acted as resistance at the end of last year, preventing further upward movement. Meanwhile, the profit-taking activity among long-term holders holding for over five months has noticeably slowed down. According to Glassnode data, these veteran investors are now selling approximately 12,800 BTC per week to realize gains, a scale roughly one-tenth of what it was when prices surged above $100,000 last year (when weekly sell-offs exceeded 100,000 BTC).

What signals does this change in data convey? On the surface, the slowdown in long-term holders’ selling pace indeed eases selling pressure on Bitcoin’s rebound. However, the issue is that this price range has repeatedly served as a “ceiling” for upward momentum over the past few months. Historical records indicate that this barrier is not so easily broken.

On-chain Data Reveals Cooling Profit-Taking Wave

Currently, Bitcoin trades around $88,620, having pulled back from previous highs. The reason behind long-term holders reducing their sell-offs warrants deeper investigation—this may reflect a change in their outlook on the market or a pause in profit-taking at higher price levels. However, this “wait-and-see” attitude also means that if prices decline, the lack of sell-side support above could lead to a sharp drop. Conversely, if prices continue to rise and break through this resistance, long-term holders might resume profit-taking, triggering a new wave of selling.

The on-chain behavior of long-term holders has always been an important indicator of market sentiment. When they frequently realize profits, it indicates that the main profit carriers in the market are cashing out; when they slow down, it may signal a commitment to higher targets or brewing larger market shifts.

Market Dilemma and Hedging Risks Before Resistance Levels

Any trend reversal attempting to break this price barrier must first absorb the potential subsequent sell-offs from long-term holders. In other words, for Bitcoin to achieve a broader upward trend, it must demonstrate that even if long-term holders resume profit-taking, there is still enough buying support to absorb these sell orders.

At the same time, it cannot be ignored that current geopolitical uncertainties are escalating. Historical experience shows that such events often trigger risk-averse sentiment, with funds flowing significantly into traditional safe-haven assets, exerting considerable downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. As long-term holders slow their profit-taking, the market faces increasing risk factors. The combined effect of this “dual pressure” warrants close attention from investors.