Portugal bans Polymarket, continues the wave of global regulation

Portuguese gambling regulator takes firm action against blockchain-based prediction markets. The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) has instructed Polymarket to cease its services within the territory within 48 hours, making Portugal part of the growing list of jurisdictions restricting predictive betting platforms.

Election Activity Surge Triggers Regulatory Action

The decision to block access to Polymarket came after the platform recorded extraordinary volume during the presidential election held on January 18. According to reports from Rádio Renascença, bets placed on the election results exceeded €103 million, equivalent to $120 million USD. This significant transaction volume drew the attention of regulatory authorities and prompted operational halts.

SRIJ emphasized that Polymarket operates without the necessary license to offer betting services in the country. “This site is not authorized to offer bets in our territory, as national law explicitly prohibits betting operations related to political events, both domestic and international,” the regulator’s official statement read.

Portugal’s Legal Framework Bans Political Betting

Restrictions against Polymarket are based on a clear legal foundation. Under the 2015 online gambling law, Portugal only permits betting on sports, casino games, and horse racing. Betting activities on political events and other real-world outcomes are explicitly prohibited under the current regulatory regime.

Prediction markets as a business model—allowing users to buy shares on the likelihood of various real-world event outcomes—are attracted to regulatory loopholes in different countries. However, Portugal’s firm stance indicates increased regulatory focus on this category of digital assets.

Polymarket Faces Widespread Restrictions Worldwide

Portugal’s actions are not isolated. The Polymarket platform is now restricted in over 30 countries, reflecting a global trend toward tighter regulation of unlicensed prediction markets. Jurisdictions restricting access include Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and recently Ukraine, which has strengthened online gambling restrictions overall.

Regulatory strategies vary across countries. Some jurisdictions like Belgium have blacklisted the platform entirely, while others like France adopt a moderate approach by allowing access in “view-only” mode for local users. Regulators are also likely to instruct internet service providers to block access to Polymarket in Portugal soon.

Broader Prediction Market Context

Besides Polymarket, other prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless operate within challenging regulatory landscapes. Each platform faces unique challenges depending on their specific jurisdiction. Founded in 2020, Polymarket has become one of the most prominent in transaction volume and global reach, while also facing the most regulatory hurdles.

The increasing restrictions on Polymarket and similar platforms signal an evolving oversight paradigm, where regulators worldwide are increasingly trying to understand, classify, and restrict innovative digital assets that do not fit within traditional legal frameworks—especially those involving bets on political events and real-world outcomes.