The Capital Market Enters a New Era: Rapid Transformation Ahead of 2026

In the rapidly evolving global financial landscape, the year 2026 marks a pivotal moment for the capital markets ecosystem. As technology advances at an astonishing pace, a comprehensive transformation of modern financial infrastructure is underway with unstoppable momentum. This wave of change is driven by the convergence of blockchain innovation, regulatory shifts, and market demand for higher efficiency.

According to David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Group, the capital markets still operate based on a premise over a century old: price discovery driven by limited access, batch settlement, and inflexible collateral. However, these classical foundations are now beginning to undergo fundamental shifts. As asset tokenization accelerates and settlement cycles shorten from days to seconds, the operational paradigm of markets will experience profound structural transformation.

Tokenization Revolutionizes Market Operations: From Batch to Real-Time

Projections for tokenized asset growth show extraordinary expansion. Market participants estimate that by 2033, the tokenized asset market will reach $18.9 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53 percent. This figure is not mere speculation but the result of in-depth analysis by global consultancies like BCG. Mercer believes that once the initial momentum is achieved, up to 80 percent of global assets could be tokenized by 2040, following an exponential growth curve similar to that seen in the telecommunications and aviation industries.

This transformation is not just about trading hours. The core of this revolution lies in sustainable capital efficiency. Currently, financial institutions must position assets days in advance, and onboarding processes for new asset classes take at least five to seven days. Settlement risks and pre-funding requirements lock capital into T+2 or T+1 cycles, creating systemic inefficiencies across the financial infrastructure.

Continuous Capital Efficiency: Collateral Becomes Functional

Tokenization significantly removes these barriers. When collateral becomes fully fungible and settlement occurs within seconds rather than days, financial institutions can continuously reallocate portfolios. Stocks, bonds, and digital assets then become components that can be exchanged within an always-active capital allocation strategy. Weekend differences disappear; markets are no longer closed but continue to rebalance automatically.

The ripple effect on market liquidity will be substantial. Capital trapped in legacy settlement cycles becomes accessible. Tokenized stablecoins and money market funds serve as interconnected networks across asset classes, enabling instant transfers between previously isolated markets. Order books deepen, trading volumes increase, and the velocity of both digital and fiat money accelerates as settlement risks diminish.

Regulation and Infrastructure: Concrete Steps Toward Sustainable Markets

For financial institutions, 2026 marks the point where operational readiness becomes a strategic priority. Risk management, treasury, and settlement operations teams must transform from discrete batch cycles to continuous processes. This entails real-time collateral management, AML/KYC procedures, digital custody integration, and acceptance of stablecoins as functional settlement channels.

Supporting infrastructure is rapidly taking shape. Regulated custodians and credit intermediary solutions have moved from proof-of-concept to full-scale production. The SEC’s approval of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) to develop a securities tokenization program recording ownership of stocks, ETFs, and bonds on blockchain is a significant signal that regulators are seriously considering this integration. While further regulatory certainty remains crucial before full-scale adoption, institutions building operational capacity for sustainable markets are now in an optimal position to move quickly once regulatory frameworks are clarified.

The Second Year of Crypto Transformation: From Expectation to Execution

Andy Baehr, Head of Product and Research at CoinDesk Indices, characterizes the crypto market journey with an intriguing metaphor. 2025 is the “first year” for crypto as an asset class recognized by major institutions of high capitalism in the United States. Regulatory climate changes following the 2024 elections create unprecedented expectations for legislative and structural progress.

2026 becomes the “second year”—a phase where growth, specialization, and operational execution take center stage. After meeting the first-year requirements and establishing a measurable environment, the industry can focus on building long-term foundations. The performance of the first year itself shows real volatility: strong rally post-election, corrections due to tariff policies, stabilization in Q2, acceleration in Q3, and turbulence in Q4 with auto-deleveraging events damaging confidence.

To avoid the notorious “sophomore slump,” crypto must achieve three key milestones in 2026. First, legislative regulation such as the RUU CLARITY must resolve controversies over stablecoin incentives and reach compromises that advance this critical legislation. Second, the industry must develop meaningful distribution channels beyond self-managed traders, reaching retail segments, mass affluent, high-net-worth, and institutional investors with allocation incentives comparable to traditional asset classes. Third, focus on digital asset quality, prioritizing the top 20 names—currencies, smart contract platforms, DeFi protocols, and core infrastructure—that offer diversification and new themes without excessive cognitive load.

Bitcoin and Gold Show Positive Correlation: Signals of Changing Landscape

Spot market dynamics reveal interesting developments. While gold continues to hit new all-time highs, the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold turned positive last week for the first time in 2026, reaching 0.40. Recent data shows Bitcoin trading at $88,350, down 1.09 percent in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum is at $2,960, down 1.58 percent. Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) after a weekly decline of 1 percent.

This shift in correlation raises a crucial question: will the sustained upward trend in gold provide a medium-term boost for Bitcoin, or does the ongoing price weakness of BTC confirm a decoupling from traditional safe-haven assets? Currently, Bitcoin still appears technically heavy and has not yet signaled a decisive reversal.

Global Adoption Accelerates Amid Local Regulatory Challenges

Although the US and UK face significant regulatory hurdles, global adoption continues to accelerate with unwavering momentum. South Korea has lifted a nine-year ban on corporate crypto investments, now allowing public companies to hold up to 5 percent of their equity capital in crypto assets, limited to major tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Interactive Brokers, a pioneer in electronic trading, has launched a groundbreaking feature enabling clients to deposit USDC (Circle) to fund brokerage accounts instantly, 24/7, with support for RLUSD (Ripple) and PYUSD (PayPal) to be added soon. These developments represent the integration of stablecoins into the broader traditional financial ecosystem. Ethereum also shows a significant increase in new addresses interacting with the network, indicating a wave of new adoption from users who have never used blockchain before.

However, challenges remain. The CLARITY bill in the US has stalled in the Senate Banking Committee over issues related to stablecoin yield incentives—an area of friction between traditional banks and non-bank issuers. The UK Parliament is also pushing to ban political donations via crypto due to concerns over foreign interference, reflecting a gap between global ambitions and local worries.

Ultimately, 2026 will determine whether the global capital markets can transition from the old paradigm to a sustainable operational era. Institutions building operational capacity today will capture value streams out of reach for their competitors. For those left behind, the window to catch up will narrow as time passes in this exponentially moving ecosystem. The fundamental question is no longer whether markets operate 24/7, but whether your institution can keep pace with this transformation.