Portugal Bans Polymarket: The Evolution of Prediction Market Regulation on a Global Level

The wave of restrictions on blockchain-based prediction markets continues to expand worldwide. Recently, Portugal joined the growing list of countries limiting Polymarket operations— a platform that allows users to bet on real-world events. Portugal’s regulatory decision reflects an evolution in the global regulatory landscape, where each country is gradually developing its own legal framework to address relatively new financial technologies and products.

103 Million Euros in 48 Hours: How Polymarket Became a Target of Portugal’s Regulation

The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), Portugal’s gambling regulator, issued an order for Polymarket to cease operations in the country within 48 hours. This tough decision came after the platform recorded an extraordinary surge in activity related to Portugal’s presidential election on January 18, with betting values exceeding 103 million euros—equivalent to 120 million USD.

According to Rádio Renascença, the regulator emphasized that Polymarket does not hold a license to offer betting services in Portugal and is operating explicitly illegally. This aligns with Portugal’s 2015 online gambling law, which explicitly bans betting on political events—both domestic and international. The types of bets permitted in the country are limited to sports, casino games, and horse racing.

SRIJ stated: “This website is not authorized to offer bets in Portugal, as national law prohibits betting operations related to political events, whether domestic or international.” Nevertheless, Polymarket remains accessible at present, and regulators are likely to soon instruct internet service providers to block access to the platform.

From 30 Countries to Future Questions: The Evolution of Regulatory Strategies Toward Prediction Markets

Portugal’s ban is not an isolated case. Polymarket, founded in 2020, has faced restrictions in over 30 countries, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and recently Ukraine. The evolution in regulatory approaches demonstrates how countries worldwide continue to adjust their strategies to address the prediction market phenomenon.

The approaches vary depending on policy priorities. Some countries, like Belgium, have formally blacklisted Polymarket and fully blocked it. Others, like France, adopt a more moderate approach by making the platform accessible to local users in a “view-only” mode—allowing observation without active participation in betting.

Alternative prediction markets such as Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless also appear to be accessible in Portugal at present, though it remains unclear whether regulations will be expanded to cover these platforms in the future.

Global Regulatory Landscape: Different Approaches to Financial Innovation

Portugal’s decision illustrates broader regulatory challenges faced by prediction markets in the digital age. While these platforms offer new ways for users to access market information and consensus expectations, they also create significant legal complexities.

The evolution of regulation around prediction markets reflects a fundamental tension: how should governments balance technological innovation with consumer protection and public policy considerations? In Portugal, the priority is clear—protecting the public from risks associated with betting on political events, which are considered qualitatively different from other forms of gambling.

As more countries take restrictive actions, the evolution of this regulatory landscape indicates that the global prediction market will continue to face pressure from various jurisdictions. The remaining question is whether the industry will adapt by developing more sophisticated regional compliance, or if regulatory barriers will continue to increase worldwide.