Options are a way for traders to measure Bitcoin risk: a 30% chance of falling below $80,000.

When Bitcoin is at a critical level around $88,000, data from the derivatives market shows clear warning signals. Options are financial instruments that allow traders to place “side bets” on the direction of price movement, and recent trends highlight the importance of defensive strategies in uncertain market conditions.

Based on analysis from the decentralized platform Derive.xyz and the centralized options exchange Deribit, traders currently project a 30% chance that Bitcoin will fall below the $80,000 level by the end of June 2026. This figure reflects a sharp negative skew—the price difference between call and put options—indicating expectations of a decline over the next 5 months.

Bitcoin under pressure between bullish hopes and downside risks

The year 2026 began with Bitcoin reaching a level of $95,000, creating optimism among investors. However, that momentum did not last long. Currently, BTC has fallen to $88.04K with continued selling pressure. This decline aligns with escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe, particularly related to controversial plans by President Donald Trump regarding Greenland.

Data from both derivatives trading platforms show a large concentration of put options—financial instruments that profit when prices fall—with strike prices ranging from $75,000 to $80,000. This indicates market expectations for a deeper decline, heading toward the mid-$70,000 range.

Put options become a market sentiment barometer for Bitcoin

To understand why options are such an important analytical tool, it’s necessary to grasp their basic mechanism. Options are derivative contracts that give the buyer the right to buy (call) or sell (put) an asset at a predetermined price. Traders pay a small premium for this right, limiting their risk exposure. If the market moves as expected, they reap amplified gains. If not, losses are limited to the premium paid.

The negative skew currently observed in Bitcoin options markets shows traders are buying more puts than calls. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, explained to CoinDesk: “The options market indicates a clear downward bias, with a 30% chance that BTC will fall below $80K by June 26, compared to a 19% chance of rising above $120K in the same period.”

This disparity reflects asymmetric fears—traders are more afraid of losing money than hoping for big gains. The concentration of open interest in put options suggests the market is positioning itself for a significant downturn.

Trump tariffs as a catalyst for market uncertainty

Rising tensions between the US and Europe, especially regarding Trump’s plans for Greenland and the threat of a 10% tariff on imports from 10 European countries, create an unstable macroeconomic environment. There is precedent: in April 2025, when Trump imposed broad tariffs on global imports, Bitcoin fell to $75,000—levels that are now a focus area for options traders.

According to Dawson, “Increasing geopolitical tensions could lead to deeper losses. The risk of regime shifts back into a higher volatility environment is real, a dynamic not yet fully reflected in the spot price of Bitcoin.” This statement indicates that the derivatives market is currently anticipating fears that are not fully priced into the direct market.

Why the dollar remains dominant despite weakening against other currencies

An interesting phenomenon occurs in the macroeconomic sector: Bitcoin has not risen alongside the weakening US dollar, even though historically these assets tend to move inversely. JPMorgan strategists state that the dollar’s weakness at this time is only driving short-term flows and sentiment shifts, not reflecting fundamental changes in economic growth or monetary policy expectations.

JPMorgan expects the dollar to stabilize as the US economy strengthens. Since the market does not see the dollar’s weakness as a sustained macro shift, Bitcoin is traded more like a high-risk asset sensitive to global liquidity rather than a reliable dollar hedge. As a result, gold and emerging market assets benefit most from dollar rotation, while Bitcoin lags behind.

Implications for traders and investors

Options market analysis provides a consistent picture: the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is significant and cannot be ignored. Although there is still a 19% chance of rising above $120, the asymmetric sentiment indicates that the risk of decline is viewed as higher by the professional trading community. Until geopolitical tensions ease and the US dollar shows a clear direction, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a high-volatility range, with the $80,000 level serving as a potential defensive target over the next 5 months.