#金价突破5500美元

Recently, my Twitter feed has been talking more and more about gold. Currently, it seems that shorting BTC and going long on commodities can make for lively discussions. I don’t want to be pessimistic about the market, but this crazy行情确实让我无奈啊。

I write about hotspots whenever they emerge. At this moment, with gold price at 5500, let’s look back at the history of gold at this critical juncture:
The first major bull market (1971—1980): surged from $35 to $850, a rise of over 20 times. The background was the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the decoupling of the dollar from gold, combined with the oil crisis and high inflation.

The second major bull market (2001—2011): rose from $250 to $1920, an increase of over 6 times. The background included the “9/11” attacks, two Middle East wars, the financial crisis, and multiple rounds of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

Compared to the previous two rounds, this bull run (started around 1046 USD in 2015) has already risen nearly 4 times, but it’s still far from the heights of the previous cycles. More importantly, gold is transitioning from a “safe-haven asset” to a “strategic reserve asset” for central banks worldwide, with its monetary attributes being revalued. Therefore, I personally believe that $5500 is not a crazy peak, but a stage marker before the formation of a new monetary order.
At this stage, profits are already in place, and chasing higher is not recommended. Wait for the yen to flow back and the dollar to rise, which will likely lead to a period of deflationary depression caused by a financial crisis. Entering the market then would be a wise choice. Think of 2008!

The following points support the bullish outlook on gold:
1. Global instability and the normalization of safe-haven demand

Today’s world is in an era of “cold peace” intertwined with localized hot wars. From the deadlock in Eastern Europe to the Middle East situation, and the frequent military actions by the US worldwide, geopolitical risks have become the norm. Gold, as a borderless, default-risk-free asset, naturally becomes a “safe harbor” for global capital.

2. Escalating trade conflicts and retreat from globalization

From “tariff wars” to technological blockades, and to supply chain “de-risking,” the global trade system is being reshaped. This uncertainty has driven up inflation expectations and prompted central banks to increase gold holdings to hedge against dollar asset risks, providing long-term support for gold prices.

3. Increased war risks and rising safety premiums

Historical experience shows that war expectations tend to push gold prices higher. Currently, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East, and US threats of force against Iran, the global security situation remains tense. This “safety premium” is partly priced into current gold prices but has not yet reached its end.

4. Countries are printing money like crazy, accelerating fiat currency devaluation

Since the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, major economies worldwide have embarked on unprecedented monetary easing. US federal debt has exceeded $38 trillion, and the dollar’s share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 56.32%, a new low since 1995. Gold, as an asset that cannot be “printed,” is being rediscovered for its value.

In summary, these points highlight two essential attributes of gold: safe-haven and war reserve!

At $4000, people thought it was the top; at $5500, perhaps we should realize: the real bull market has just begun.
Viewing gold as a “ballast” in asset allocation, rather than a short-term speculative tool, is the way to stay steady and far-sighted in this turbulent era.

#黄金 #Macroeconomics