ETF Bitcoin Experiences Largest Outflow Since November, Potential Signal of BTC Rebound

The cryptocurrency market is showing intriguing signals from US spot bitcoin ETF data. Since the end of last week, large funds have been flowing out of this financial instrument, creating a pattern similar to past price recovery periods.

US Bitcoin ETF Outflows Since Last Week Reach Highest Level

The US Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced withdrawals of $1.22 billion over the past four days, marking the worst scenario since November based on data from SoSoValue. The withdrawals occurred gradually, with $479.7 million pulled on Tuesday and $708.7 million on Wednesday.

During this outflow period, Bitcoin’s price declined by about 5%, and the largest cryptocurrency is now nearly unchanged since the beginning of the year. Although it appears negative, this fund flow pattern has attracted market analysts’ attention due to its connection with future price recoveries.

Support Level $84,099: Recurrent Price Floor Since Last Month

The average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is currently at $84,099. This figure holds technical significance as it has repeatedly served as a major support area. According to data from Glassnode, this level played a crucial role when Bitcoin hit a low around $80,000 in November.

Data shows that the support at $84,099 was also relevant during price pressure in April 2025. When investors see the price approaching this level, institutional buyers often engage in “backing buying,” creating a foundation for subsequent recovery.

The current Bitcoin price is at $87.79K, with a 2.26% decline in the last 24 hours. This position remains above the key support level, providing a buffer zone before reaching critical support areas.

Since 2024: When Large ETF Outflows Often Lead to Recoveries

Historical data shows a consistent pattern since 2024. Whenever there is a significant outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, that period often coincides with the formation of a local bottom in BTC price.

November is a perfect example. When $1.22 billion flowed out of ETFs over four days, Bitcoin dropped to around $80,000. However, a few days later, the cryptocurrency made a strong recovery, surpassing $90,000 again.

A similar pattern repeated in March 2025, just before turbulence related to tariff policies. At that time, Bitcoin fell to $76,000 before recovering. Going further back, August 2024 recorded a dramatic scenario when Bitcoin hit $49,000 due to the massive unwinding of yen carry trades, followed by continued recovery.

Technical analysis indicates that large ETF outflows do not always imply long-term negativity. Instead, these fund flows often signal that the price has reached an attractive level for long-term buyers, even if short-term momentum is pressured.

With a solid support level of $84,099 below and a historically correlated outflow pattern with rebounds, traders and investors are anticipating a potential recovery aligned with the established pattern since November. However, it is important to remember that technical analysis is not a guarantee, and macro factors and market sentiment continue to influence cryptocurrency price movements.