Bitcoin falling while gold reaches unprecedented all-time highs

Bitcoin is falling amid an unstoppable rally in precious metals that has pushed gold to nearly $5,000 again. In a week marked by volatility, the largest performance divergence between two considered “safe haven” assets exposes deep divisions among analysts about the future of the crypto narrative.

Gold rose 1.7% on Thursday to reach $4,930 per ounce, while silver surged 3.7% to $96 per ounce. Simultaneously, Bitcoin continued to decline and was trading just above $87,830, reflecting a performance that contradicts the optimistic expectations from just a few months ago. This drop places BTC approximately 30% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2024.

The Bitcoin adoption narrative under pressure

Jim Bianco, director of Bianco Research, has questioned whether the Bitcoin adoption narrative has exhausted its potential. According to Bianco, corporate and institutional adoption announcements no longer generate the momentum needed to sustain rallies. “Adoption announcements are no longer working. A new theme is needed, and that is not yet evident,” the analyst stated on social media.

However, not everyone shares this pessimistic view. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, argued that Bitcoin is simply consolidating gains after a spectacular rise. “It increased approximately 300% over the past 20 months,” Balchunas recalled, questioning expectations of uninterrupted annual returns.

Performance comparison: Gold gains while Bitcoin falls

The numbers paint an unfavorable picture for Bitcoin over the last 14 months since Trump’s electoral victory in November 2024. According to Bianco data, Bitcoin has retreated 2.6%, while simultaneously:

• Silver has risen 205%
• Gold has advanced 83%
• The Nasdaq has appreciated 24%
• The S&P 500 has gained 17.6%

This comparison reveals that Bitcoin is not only being outperformed by its crypto competitors but is also falling even against traditional markets. “And while we wait for that new theme, everything else is advancing rapidly while Bitcoin remains stagnant,” Bianco commented on the disconnect in the crypto market.

Factors behind the decline: Long-term realized gains

Balchunas identified a key factor in the poor performance: Bitcoin’s “quiet public operation.” Early investors who accumulated BTC over years are taking profits after waiting more than a decade. An iconic example was an investor who sold over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin in July 2025 after holding it since the early days.

This selling flow reflects the maturing of the Bitcoin market but also the lack of new buyers with the same conviction as the pioneers. Cryptocurrency derivatives show declining open interest and a growing trend toward defensive positions and protective put options.

Historical context: from crypto winter to consolidation

To understand the current landscape, it’s important to remember Bitcoin’s historical context. During the depths of the 2022 crypto winter, Bitcoin traded below $16,000. The rise to the $126,080 peak in October 2024 represented a gain of approximately 688% in less than two years, one of the most aggressive rallies in the asset’s history.

“In November 2024, Bitcoin had increased 122% year-over-year, far surpassing gold,” Balchunas recalled. However, precious metals have been trying to recover lost ground, and in 2026 so far, they are succeeding.

Divided perspectives on the future

The debate between Bianco and Balchunas encapsulates the current market uncertainty. While some see Bitcoin falling due to narrative exhaustion, others see it as a healthy correction in a longer-term framework. The fact that the precious metals rally shows no signs of ceding suggests that investors are rebalancing their portfolios toward tangible and less volatile assets.

Bitcoin, with its recent drop to $87,830 (updated as of January 29, 2026), remains under short-term pressure, although its long-term trajectory remains positive relative to 2022 prices. The key question shaping the current market is exactly what Bianco raises: What will be the next theme that drives Bitcoin beyond the declining relevance of the institutional adoption narrative?