Bitcoin's Extended Bear Market Against Gold: Why History Suggests Further Weakness Ahead

The cryptocurrency market faces a sobering reality as bitcoin enters a prolonged bear market against precious metals. While gold has surged to fresh record highs near $4,900 per ounce and climbed approximately 12% year-to-date, bitcoin tells a markedly different story. The digital asset’s year-to-date performance has turned negative at -13.25%, with prices hovering around $87.83K—a stark contrast to the traditional safe-haven asset’s strength. This divergence highlights a critical shift in how bitcoin is being perceived and valued in the current macroeconomic environment.

The BTC-to-Gold Ratio Breakdown: A Bear Market Bellwether

The bitcoin-to-gold valuation gap has become a key indicator of the ongoing bear market pressures on cryptocurrency. The BTC-to-gold ratio currently trades near 18.46, positioned approximately 17% below its 200-week moving average of 21.90. This technical breakdown is particularly significant because the 200WMA reflects nearly four years of price data and represents the long-term equilibrium level between these two asset classes.

When examined through a historical lens, the current bear market positioning is noteworthy but not unprecedented. During the severe 2022 bear market cycle, the ratio plummeted more than 30% below its 200WMA and remained depressed for over a year. The latest breakdown began in November 2025, suggesting—if historical patterns hold—that the ratio could remain substantially below its long-term average until late 2026. This prolonged weakness in bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold underscores the depth of the current bear market phase.

Historical Bear Market Cycles: Lessons From 2022 and 2018

To understand the potential severity and duration of bitcoin’s current bear market, investors look to previous cycles for guidance. From December 2024’s peak, bitcoin has declined roughly 55% against gold. While this represents a meaningful pullback, the magnitude pales compared to prior bear markets. The 2022 bear market saw bitcoin tumble 77% against precious metals, while the 2017-2018 cycle witnessed an even steeper 84% decline. These historical comparisons suggest the current bear market, though challenging, could potentially deepen further if precedent is any guide.

The extended nature of past bear markets is equally instructive. The 2022 decline remained entrenched for extended periods, keeping bitcoin significantly undervalued relative to its historical relationship with gold. This multi-quarter positioning has led analysts to project that if current trends continue, the bear market pressures on bitcoin’s gold valuation could persist well into 2026.

Macro Headwinds Intensifying the Current Bear Market

The bear market dynamics reflect broader macroeconomic forces that extend beyond cryptocurrency-specific factors. A sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar has created significant headwinds for risk assets, while strength in traditional commodities—particularly gold, silver, and copper at elevated levels—has drawn capital away from digital assets. The Federal Reserve’s unchanged interest rate stance has done little to reverse these pressures, leaving bitcoin trading more like a high-beta risk asset sensitive to macro volatility rather than functioning as an alternative hedge.

Bitcoin’s current positioning in the bear market phase is characterized by subdued trading activity and consolidation roughly 30% below its October 2025 peak. The digital asset remains trapped below key resistance near $89,000, struggling to establish sustainable upward momentum despite modest gains in related assets like ether, solana, BNB, and dogecoin. This technical weakness, combined with macro headwinds, reinforces the bear market narrative that has gripped markets since late 2025.

What History Tells Us About Recovery From This Bear Market

The parallel to the 2022 bear market cycle offers both cautionary and constructive perspectives. That extended downturn demonstrated that bear markets in crypto can persist for 12-18 months, testing investor patience and conviction. However, it also showed that recovery eventually follows, though often accompanied by further capitulation before reversals gain traction. The current bear market may follow a similar trajectory, with the bitcoin-to-gold ratio potentially remaining depressed through mid-2026 before mean reversion begins.

For market participants monitoring the bear market’s progression, the 200WMA continues to serve as a critical reference point. If bitcoin can recover toward this level, it would signal a meaningful shift in relative valuations and potentially mark the beginning of the bear market’s end. Until then, the current environment suggests patience and vigilance remain warranted as crypto navigates what could be an extended bear market phase against traditional safe-haven assets.