Approximately 4%, the luxury watch market shows signs of recovery as crypto plunges

A drastic separation has occurred in the luxury asset market. While Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies broadly experience significant selling pressure, the secondary watch market is moving in the opposite direction. Over the past six months, prices in the watch market have increased by approximately 4%, becoming an important symbol of how investor preferences are shifting amid tight macroeconomic conditions.

This contrast reflects fundamental changes in how investors view speculative assets versus physical stores of value. Data from WatchCharts shows a clear trend: while the CoinDesk 20 crypto index has fallen more than 30% over the same period, and Bitcoin has experienced pressure, the luxury watch market has actually found stability.

Divergence that Sets Them Apart: Watches Versus Crypto

This divergence is no coincidence. According to joint analysis from Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts, the recovery in the watch market reflects a stabilization phase after two years of deep decline. Selling pressure has decreased as excess inventory diminishes, and global watch manufacturers have raised retail prices by around 7% since early 2025, helping to boost resale values in the secondary market.

Conversely, Bitcoin is currently trading around $87.83K with a daily decline of 2.30%, while Ether has fallen 3.35%, Solana plummeted 3.95%, and most crypto assets face consistent selling pressure. The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, creating an environment unfavorable for high speculation on digital assets.

Premium Brands as Symbols of Price-Setting Power

The watch market recovery is highly concentrated among a handful of brands with real pricing power. Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet lead the recovery, while most other brands remain heavily discounted. This dynamic clearly symbolizes how quality and rarity create sustainable value.

Morgan Stanley highlights the important role of controlled secondary channels, especially certified pre-owned Rolex programs, as stabilizing factors that reduce market volatility and support prices in the premium segment. This demonstrates how a well-organized system can preserve the value of luxury assets, unlike the volatile nature of crypto.

Asset Shift: From Crypto Speculation to Physical Rarity

The separation between watches and crypto is not standalone. Simultaneously, massive investor capital is shifting into precious metals. Gold has risen nearly 70% since early 2025, while silver has surged spectacularly by about 150%, driven by macroeconomic concerns, industrial demand, and increasing policy risks.

This pattern reveals something fundamental: the market no longer views crypto, watches, and metals as interchangeable bets. Instead, investors increasingly distinguish between fast-moving, highly volatile financial assets and physical stores of value that move more slowly but are more stable. Luxury watches, with intrinsic value and genuine rarity, are increasingly treated more like precious metals than speculative instruments.

Evolving Market Implications

This bifurcation reflects the maturity of the alternative asset market. Institutional and experienced individual investors now employ more nuanced diversification, selecting assets based on risk profiles and fundamental characteristics, rather than just momentum trends.

While Bitcoin remains in a roughly 30% bearish consolidation zone below its October peak, and cryptocurrencies struggle to break resistance, the luxury watch market shows that physical assets with true rarity have more enduring appeal. Rolex and Patek Philippe not only excel in this recovery but also symbolize a larger shift toward measurable and sustainable stores of value in an era of high macro volatility.