Bitcoin ETF's record outflow - a precursor to the market bottom?

American investment funds for Bitcoin experienced their largest outflow since November last week. This massive capital withdrawal, totaling $1.22 billion in just four trading days, could be an important market signal that the cryptocurrency is at a critical turning point.

Massive ETF Outflow Reaches Highest Level Since November

The outflow from American spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked on Wednesday at $708.7 million, followed by $479.7 million on Tuesday, according to market analysts from SoSoValue. The total amount of $1.22 billion leaving ETFs this week matches exactly the size of a similar exodus in November. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped by about 5%, after which the price remained relatively stable compared to the beginning of the year.

This kind of massive ETF outflow raises questions among investors: is this a sign of panic or rather a precursor to stabilization?

Historical Patterns: When ETF Outflows Coincide with Price Recovery

The data shows a striking pattern. In November, when the same $1.22 billion left similar ETFs, Bitcoin formed a bottom around $80,000 before quickly recovering to above $90,000. This was repeated in March 2025, when amid trading tensions between Trump and partners, Bitcoin fell to $76,000 — again in conjunction with significant ETF outflow value.

August 2024 also provides an illustrative example. When the Japanese yen carry trade surged, Bitcoin hit a low of around $49,000. In all these cases, heavy ETF outflows correlated with local bottoms that soon followed with a recovery.

The rule seems clear: periodic waves of ETF cash evaporation often mark the transition from panic selling to stable re-accumulation.

Average Purchase Price of ETF Investors at Critical Support Level

For investors holding Bitcoin via ETFs, the current situation is relevant. The average cost basis for ETF investors stands at $84,099. This level has frequently proven to be an important threshold: both during the November decline to $80,000 and in April 2025, this level served as support.

Glassnode data shows that this cost level is not coincidental — it reflects where larger ETF cash flows have historically settled.

Market Dynamics and Future Perspectives

Meanwhile, broader market indices declined: the CoinDesk 20 index fell as investors retreated to safer assets. Cryptocurrency derivatives market data indicated decreasing open interest, limited volatility, and a growing preference for protective options and short positions.

Despite positive news — such as Optimism’s community approval of a 12-month plan where half of Superchain revenues go toward OP token purchases — the token price did not hold, indicating broader risk aversion in the sector.

The current Bitcoin price at $88,030 and the historical pattern of ETF outflows provide points for analysis, though caution is advised given the volatility.