2026: The Turning Point of 24/7 Capital Market and the S-Curve Growth in Tokenization

2026 marks a critical momentum for the transformation of the global capital markets. The S-curve concept—an exponential growth model illustrating technology adoption from slow initial phases to massive acceleration—will be key to understanding the evolution of digital asset tokenization. Currently, the capital markets still operate on premises over a century old: discrete batch settlements, collateral trapped in multi-day cycles, and infrastructure unprepared for 24/7 circulation.

This shift is no longer theoretical. Infrastructure is beginning to take shape, regulations are starting to send positive signals, and institutions are preparing their operational capacities. The question is no longer whether the transformation will happen, but how quickly the S-curve will rise and who is ready to seize the emerging opportunities.

Tokenization Changing the Paradigm: From Batch Cycles to Continuous Systems

The fundamental premises of traditional capital markets—limited access, delayed settlements, and inactive collateral—are now beginning to collapse. As tokenization accelerates and settlement cycles shrink from days to seconds, global institutions are entering a new phase in financial history.

David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Group, identifies 2026 as a tipping point where continuous markets shift from a theoretical stage to a structural one. This change is not happening in a vacuum—market participants have projected that tokenized assets will reach $18.9 trillion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53%. This projection itself shows a clear S-curve pattern: slow initial growth, followed by dramatic acceleration once critical adoption is achieved.

Mercer even predicts an even greater potential. After the “first domino falls” and blockchain technology proves capable of handling institutional scale, up to 80% of all assets worldwide could be tokenized by 2040. The S-curve not only grows exponentially at 50% per year—history shows similar patterns in mobile phones, the internet, and other transformative technologies.

Capital Efficiency: How the S-Curve Growth Will Transform Asset Allocation

The real benefit of this transformation lies in radical capital efficiency. Currently, institutions must position assets days in advance, perform complex collateral placements, and wait for T+2 or T+1 settlements (transactions settled one to two days later). This process locks up capital in unproductive cycles and creates structural barriers across the financial system.

Tokenization fundamentally removes these barriers. When collateral becomes fungible and settlement occurs in seconds, institutions can continuously reallocate portfolios. Stocks, bonds, and digital assets become components that can be exchanged within a constantly active capital allocation strategy. Weekend differences disappear. Markets are no longer closed—they perform continuous rebalancing.

The ripple effect on liquidity will be significant. Capital previously trapped in legacy settlement cycles becomes unlocked. Tokenized stablecoins and money market funds serve as connecting networks between previously separate asset classes, enabling instant transfers. Order books deepen, trading volumes increase, and the velocity of digital and fiat capital turns faster as settlement risks diminish. This is the S-curve in action: low marginal efficiency initially, then a huge leap once critical mass is reached.

Regulation and Infrastructure: Foundations for Exponential Growth

To achieve the true launch of the S-curve, two critical elements must be in place: regulatory certainty and mature infrastructure.

Recent developments offer hope. The SEC recently approved the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) to develop a securities tokenization program that records ownership of stocks, ETFs, and bonds on the blockchain. This decision signals that regulators are taking the integration of blockchain technology into the formal financial system seriously.

Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers—a giant in electronic trading—has launched features allowing clients to deposit USDC (and soon RLUSD from Ripple and PYUSD from PayPal) to fund brokerage accounts instantly, 24/7. This is not just a technical feature; it’s proof that major institutions are ready with infrastructure to support around-the-clock markets.

Global adoption continues to rise. South Korea has lifted a nine-year ban on corporate crypto investments, now allowing public companies to hold up to 5% of their equity capital in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move indicates that major countries are preparing for the tokenization era.

2026 Is the Second Year of Crypto: Building After the Foundations Are Laid

Andy Baehr, Head of Product and Research at CoinDesk Indices, uses an engaging metaphor: if 2025 is the “first year” of crypto—its official registration within major American capitalism—then 2026 is the “second year,” a year for building, expanding, and specializing.

The first year has taught valuable lessons. After the explosive rally post-election, the market quickly learned about volatility and macro connections. Tariff tantrums pushed Bitcoin below $80,000 and Ethereum sharply declined toward $1,500. But over time, the rehydrated market found its rhythm, reaching all-time high prices and expanding stablecoin adoption.

The fourth quarter brought painful blows with Auto-Deleveraging events that shattered confidence. But this is an essential part of learning: volatility is part of the digital market’s maturation.

To avoid the well-known “sophomore slump” of the second year, crypto must do several things right in 2026:

First, legislative progress. The CLARITY Act faces a tough road due to controversy over stablecoin incentives. Small points must be overlooked, and compromises made to advance this critical legislation. It’s a bridge toward the regulatory certainty needed to accelerate the S-curve.

Second, meaningful distribution. The most fundamental challenge remains building distribution channels beyond self-managed traders. Until crypto can reach retail segments, mass affluent, and institutional investors with incentives comparable to other asset classes, institutional acceptance will not translate into significant institutional performance.

Third, focus on quality. Larger, high-quality digital assets will continue to dominate. The top twenty names—currencies, smart contract platforms, DeFi protocols, key infrastructure—offer enough variety for diversification without overwhelming cognitive load.

Changing Bitcoin-Gold Correlation: A New Market Signal

In the last week of January 2026, a significant technical shift occurred. While gold hit new all-time highs, the 30-day rolling correlation of Bitcoin to gold turned positive for the first time this year, reaching 0.40. This signals a shift in market dynamics: Bitcoin is beginning to move in line with traditional safe-haven assets, not against them.

However, BTC still shows technical weakness. After a weekly decline of 2.18% and current price at $88.04K, Bitcoin failed to reclaim the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). Ethereum also declined 3.16%, reaching $2.93K.

What’s important now is whether the sustained upward trend in gold will provide a medium-term boost for Bitcoin, or if persistent BTC price weakness confirms a decoupling from traditional safe-haven assets. This signal will be a key indicator of where the market is heading amid ongoing tokenization transformation.

Conclusion: The S-Curve Is Just Beginning

2026 is no longer a year of uncertainty. Infrastructure is built, regulation is moving, and institutions are preparing. The tokenization S-curve has entered a phase where slow initial growth begins to turn into measurable, yet steady acceleration.

For institutions capable of continuously managing liquidity and risk in 24/7 markets, the opportunity to capture flows that are structurally inaccessible to competitors is already opening. For investors, this year will be when crypto is no longer just an alternative asset class—but an integral component of a global multi-asset allocation strategy, with its growth S-curve just entering exponential phase.