"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Multiple structural factors restrict ETH and BTC from rising along with other risk assets

Crypto界网 January 29 News, “Insider Whale 1011” agent Garrett Jin posted on X platform stating that multiple structural factors have constrained ETH and BTC from rising along with other risk assets. The main reasons are believed to be trading cycles, market microstructure, and market manipulation by some exchanges, market makers, or speculative funds. Regarding market background, the deleveraging decline that began in October has caused severe losses to leveraged participants, especially retail investors. From a time cycle perspective, although BTC and ETH have performed poorly over three years, they still outperform most assets over a six-year cycle. Short-term underperformance can be seen as a mean reversion within the long-term cycle. As long as the narratives of BTC as “Digital Gold” and ETH as the core infrastructure for AI and RWA are not disproven, there is no basis for long-term poor performance. Currently, the futures trading volume of BTC and ETH is near historical lows, indicating that the deleveraging process is nearing its end. It is simplistic to label BTC and ETH as purely risk assets; they also have safe-haven attributes. The real reason for their poor performance lies within the crypto market: the market is in the late stage of the deleveraging cycle, participants are highly sensitive to downside risks; the market is dominated by retail investors with passive institutional participation; speculative funds exploit retail investors’ high leverage and market microstructure to create volatility through concentrated selling during periods of low liquidity, triggering chain reactions of liquidations.