Gold and Bitcoin: Two Divergent Investment Strategies in 2026

For investors looking to allocate their capital, the market is sending mixed signals. On one hand, gold is soaring towards the $5,000 per ounce mark. On the other hand, Bitcoin struggles to surpass $88,000, lagging significantly behind precious metals. This divergence raises a fundamental question: which asset deserves the preference of savvy investors?

The spectacular rise of gold compared to Bitcoin’s stagnation

Last Thursday, precious metals surged during the US session, pushing gold to a new record of $4,930 per ounce. Silver was not left behind, gaining 3.7% to reach $96 per ounce. Meanwhile, Bitcoin barely retreated above $89,000, recording a 2.6% decline over the period.

These figures mask a more troubling reality for cryptocurrency investors. Over the past 14 months, since November 2024, Bitcoin has only increased by 2.6%, while silver soared by 205%, gold by 83%, the Nasdaq by 24%, and the S&P 500 by 17.6%. In other words, almost all other assets have outperformed Bitcoin.

The debate among analysts: a moment of adjustment or loss of momentum?

Bitcoin’s weak performance in recent months has fueled a debate among sector experts. Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, believes that the narrative of Bitcoin adoption is losing strength. According to him, “adoption announcements are no longer working. We need a new theme, and that is not yet clear.”

Faced with this alarmist perspective, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, offers a different interpretation. He emphasizes that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase after a remarkable rise. From December 2022 to October 2024, the price increased by about 300% over 20 months, from below $16,000 to peaks of $126,000.

“What do you want? Annual gains of 200% without interruption?” retorts Balchunas, suggesting that the market is simply digesting previous gains before a new growth phase.

Underlying mechanisms: profit-taking and asset reallocation

Balchunas identifies a often overlooked factor: early investors taking profits after many years of holding. He describes this phenomenon as the “silent IPO” of Bitcoin. A notable example: an investor from the Satoshi era sold over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin in July 2025 after holding it for more than a decade.

This dynamic partly explains why, despite the narrative of “tangible assets,” Bitcoin trades like a high-risk asset. Investors seeking a store of value now prefer physical gold and silver over digital tokens, reflecting a shift in risk perception.

Market signals: greed sentiment for gold, fear for cryptocurrencies

Sentiment indicators tell an eloquent story. The JM Bullion Gold Fear & Greed Index signals extreme optimism regarding precious metals, suggesting that the gold market may be overcrowded. The notional value of the gold market surged by about $1.6 billion in a single day.

In stark contrast, similar indicators in the cryptocurrency universe remain stuck in fear, indicating that the bullish sentiment has not yet regained traction. This sentiment dichotomy largely explains the divergent trajectories of the two asset classes.

Long-term perspective: when should investors position themselves?

The debate between Bianco and Balchunas captures a fundamental tension in investment strategies: favoring short-term performance or long-term structural growth. Balchunas recalls that in November 2024, Bitcoin had increased by 122% over a year, significantly outpacing gold. According to him, metals are simply going through a catch-up phase.

For investors, the choice between gold and Bitcoin is not just a matter of timing. It’s about determining whether you seek protection against inflation (gold) or participation in technological disruption (Bitcoin), while considering market cycles and investor sentiment.