The probability of Bitcoin falling below US$80,000 increases according to options data

Geopolitical tensions surrounding Donald Trump’s plan for Greenland and his tariff threats have created an environment of uncertainty in global financial markets. In this context, options market data reveal a significant probability that Bitcoin will experience a substantial retracement. While BTC is currently trading around US$88.12K with a 2.40% decline in the last 24 hours, traders are positioning defensively.

Tariffs and geopolitics: the new risk factor for Bitcoin

Renewed tensions between the United States and Europe, particularly over Trump’s controversial Greenland initiative, have generated an unprecedented level of volatility. When the president imposed broad tariffs in April 2025, Bitcoin dropped to US$75,000, marking its lowest point during that period. Now, with new threats of a 10% tax on European imports, analysts warn that a similar or even greater turbulence could occur.

This shift in sentiment is directly reflected in derivatives market data. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk that “the increase in geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe raises the risk of a regime change toward a higher volatility environment, a dynamic not currently reflected in spot prices.” This asymmetry between perceived risk and current price suggests that Bitcoin has not yet fully incorporated the new uncertainty factors.

What do traders predict about Bitcoin’s price?

Data from decentralized platforms like Derive.xyz and the centralized exchange Deribit provide a clear window into market expectations. Approximately 30% probability in options contracts indicates that BTC could fall below US$80,000 before June 26, 2026. In comparison, there is only a 19% chance it will rise above US$120,000 in the same period.

This asymmetry in expectations is particularly notable when looking at where open interest in options is concentrated. Both on Derive and Deribit, there is a considerable amount of put options with strike prices ranging between US$75,000 and US$80,000. This concentration implies that many traders anticipate a further decline toward the mid-US$70,000 zone, which would be the lowest level since April 2025.

The options skew remains markedly negative, demonstrating short-term bearish fears. This metric, which measures the price difference between call and put options, is a crucial indicator of market sentiment. When negative, it suggests investors fear more severe declines than unexpected rises.

Understanding the options market: how these probabilities are formed

Options are derivative contracts that allow traders to bet on future price movements. The mechanism is simple but powerful: they pay an initial premium to secure a “what if” agreement.

If the trader believes Bitcoin will rise, they buy a call option. If the price exceeds the predetermined level, they profit from buying low. Conversely, if they think it will fall, they buy a put option. If BTC drops below the agreed level, they profit from selling high. In both cases, they risk losing the premium paid if the market does not move as expected.

The current 30% probability is not predicted by any individual analyst but emerges from aggregated market information. It is the multitude of traders—each with their own opinion and data—that collectively reveal a consensus estimate. When many traders buy protective puts, they push the prices of those contracts upward, reflecting that 30% probability.

What would a drop to US$80,000 mean for Bitcoin?

A move toward US$80,000 would represent a 9% loss from the current levels of US$88.12K. Beyond the price impact, such a decline would have significant implications for Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value asset. According to analysts, the current geopolitical uncertainty environment could pressure investors toward more traditional assets like physical gold and silver.

The probability assigned by the options market to this scenario suggests that downside risks are being taken seriously. However, it is also important to recognize that a 30% probability implies a 70% chance that Bitcoin will stay above that level, or even rise, over the next five months.