Oscillating Motor: Why Bitcoin Falls Behind While Gold Soars in 2026

The oscillating engine of Bitcoin in January 2026 revealed an uncomfortable truth about the maturation of cryptocurrency markets. While gold and silver reach all-time highs, Bitcoin remains stuck below $90,000, exhibiting a market behavior that defies the volatility expectations of recent years. Philippe Bekhazi, CEO of XBTO, offers an intriguing perspective on why this “boring” performance may actually signal not a failure, but a fundamental transformation.

The Oscillating Engine of Bitcoin in the Institutional Era

The recent drop of Bitcoin to $88,120 (-2.40% in 24h) occurred amid global bond sell-offs and US tariff threats. However, the most striking feature was not the decline itself, but the underlying pattern: a sideways oscillating engine, trapped within a narrow price range, despite months of increasing institutional participation.

Bekhazi argues that this phenomenon does not represent the end of the bullish thesis for Bitcoin. Instead, it is the signature of the asset’s evolution from a speculative play to a true institutional asset. “There is a fundamental difference between Bitcoin and what we call crypto,” explains the CEO. Bitcoin has ceased to be traded as an extremely risky asset of emerging markets. It is now priced more like a security whose fundamentals are crystallizing.

The structure of the new market has direct consequences for price behavior. Bitcoin has transcended the venture capital era, marked by two- or three-digit rallies followed by equally violent crashes. “We are beyond the speculative phase,” says Bekhazi. The arrival of regulated ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sophisticated derivatives markets has transformed the oscillating engine into something more predictable and contained, where large institutions prioritize stability over raw volatility.

Gold and Silver Rising: The Capital Rotation Explained

While Bitcoin oscillates, gold and silver have exploded to record highs. Silver nearly doubled compared to the previous year, while LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) forecasts for 2026 indicate that average gold prices will rise nearly 40% over 2025. The notional value of gold alone jumped approximately $1.6 trillion in a single day, with sentiment indicators like JM Bullion’s Gold Fear & Greed Index signaling extreme optimism.

Bekhazi anticipated this rotation. “Gold continues to be the world’s safe haven currency when things are not going well,” he notes, particularly for governments and central banks that lack the agility to quickly allocate massive volumes into Bitcoin. The divergence between the Bitcoin oscillating engine and the gold trajectory is no accident—it’s cyclical.

The critical question is whether this underperformance reflects market maturation or a relative mispricing. Bekhazi emphasizes that absolute comparisons between assets matter less than the relative relationship. Gold absorbs urgency and scale first. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is increasingly viewed by institutions as a long-term asset whose fundamentals unfold over extended horizons.

Risk Transfer Strategies: The New Institutional Frontier

The oscillating engine of Bitcoin also masks a profound shift in how institutions trade the asset. The cascade of liquidations in October 2025, which wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions, offers an important lesson: institutional activity now primarily focuses on risk transfer, not direct exposure.

“We have large investors who often want exposure to Bitcoin but need to hedge against sharp declines,” Bekhazi explains. This sophistication in derivatives introduces an important nuance: the volatility we see is amplified by the fragmented microstructure of cryptocurrency markets, not by reduced macro conviction.

Active managers now capture alpha through liquidity operations, leveraging price gaps created by leveraged liquidations, rather than through pure directional bets. The oscillating engine reveals both tactical opportunities and structural limitations of a market still learning to scale.

Ether and Global Markets Under Pressure

Ethereum was particularly affected, falling below $2,940 (-3.42% in 24h), performing worse than Bitcoin during the risk aversion move. This signaled that conviction in altcoins weakened relatively during turbulence, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.28% in line with Wall Street’s worst session in three months.

Warning Signs: What Could Break the Thesis

Bekhazi was explicit about scenarios that could invalidate the narrative of digital Bitcoin as an alternative to gold. If Bitcoin begins trading as a high-beta tech asset during inflationary periods, the thesis would collapse. Sustained ETF outflows during a routine 20% correction would signal fragile institutional hands. And a price increase accompanied by declining on-chain activity or stablecoin usage would suggest that the institutional era rests more on speculation than on real utility.

For now, markets are testing whether Bitcoin’s oscillating engine reflects genuine maturation or mispricing. the next phase of the cycle will depend on which interpretation history validates.

Alternative Cases: Pudgy Penguins and the Resurgence of Native IPs

While Bitcoin oscillates and gold soars, other narratives are emerging in the crypto market. Pudgy Penguins has become one of the strongest NFT brands of the cycle, transitioning from “speculative luxury assets” to a genuine multi-vertical intellectual property platform. With over $13 million in retail sales and more than 1 million units sold, along with 500,000 downloads of the Pudgy Party game in just two weeks, the project demonstrates that crypto capital, when absent from the Bitcoin oscillating engine, seeks alternative avenues for structured growth.