White gold in focus: silver surges past the $100 mark on the wave of precious metals revaluation

Against the backdrop of a major reshuffling of investment portfolios, precious metals are demonstrating dynamics that many market participants considered unbelievable just a month ago. On Thursday, silver approached the psychological mark of $100 per ounce, while gold was trading near $4,950, marking one of the most impressive Januaries in history: the monthly gain in gold exceeded 7%, and silver was even more volatile, surging by nearly 30%. At the same time, Bitcoin traded around $88,120, showing a noticeably more modest movement, which clearly indicates a shift in investor preferences toward traditional hedge assets.

Investors Reorient: From Numbers to Physical Assets

The wave of interest in silver and gold is no coincidence — it results from a collective rethinking of where exactly to seek protection from macroeconomic uncertainty. Prediction markets provide a compelling picture: on Polymarket, contracts assign a 97-percent probability for gold to first reach the $5,000 mark compared to Ethereum at $3,000 (current ETH quote is $2,940). This means market participants no longer see $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver as ceilings but as natural growth milestones.

Clustering of contracts at the end of January reveals asymmetry in expectations: the majority of deals are concentrated in scenarios where gold ends the month at or above $5,000, while significantly lower prices remain only fringe bets. Similar confidence dominates the silver market, where traders actively position for the white metal to move above $85 with a substantial probability of reaching the target level of $100.

Volatility Architecture: Where Reality Hides

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the current rally lies in the structure of volatility. The realized volatility of silver has soared to extreme 60s, reflecting a fierce reassessment of this metal’s value. Gold, however, perceives the shift in values differently: its realized volatility has increased but remains within a low 20-percent range, signaling an orderly revaluation rather than a panic sell-off.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is experiencing a compression of realized volatility to mid-30s, despite recent highs. This disparity in volatility across assets sends an important signal: investors concerned about macro risks are choosing physical precious metals over digital tokens as a portfolio hedge.

Fundamental Consensus

Goldman Sachs, raising its forecast for gold to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026 from $4,900, effectively legitimized what prediction markets and price contracts have been indicating. Such alignment between the largest investment bank and the distributed forecast market is rarely coincidental: it reflects a real rethinking of gold and silver’s roles in portfolio construction amid global economic uncertainty.

Silver vs Bitcoin: Competition for the Safe-Haven Role

In a direct contest for the role of a store of value, silver and traditional gold convincingly outperform Bitcoin. This shift is notable because it closes the narrative of recent years about cryptocurrencies as “hard assets.” Bitcoin remains a high-beta speculative instrument, while investors truly seeking safety prefer physical silver and gold over digital tokens, which are exposed to technological and regulatory risks.

Market sentiment indicators, such as the Gold Fear & Greed Index from JM Bullion, record extreme optimism in the precious metals segment, creating an interesting contrast with similar crypto indicators, which still remain in the fear zone.

What Lies Ahead: Consolidation or Reversal?

The monthly jump of nearly 30% in silver and over 7% in gold has already been recorded in market history. However, the key question remains: are current levels a cyclical peak or the beginning of a longer-term reshaping of demand for precious metals? Prediction markets lean more toward the latter scenario, suggesting that silver has the potential to develop within a range between $100 and significantly higher levels.

For market participants, the significance of this moment extends far beyond nominal price jumps. It’s about a fundamental revaluation of which assets best protect portfolios from macroeconomic uncertainty. And in this revaluation, silver and gold clearly outperform their digital competitors, reallocating a substantial amount of capital that until recently sought refuge in cryptocurrencies.