The Expanding List of Countries Where Polymarket Faces Restrictions

Prediction market platforms are hitting regulatory walls globally, with Portugal becoming the latest addition to a growing list of jurisdictions cracking down on blockchain-based betting services. Portugal’s gambling regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), took enforcement action against Polymarket after detecting unprecedented betting volume tied to the country’s January 18 presidential election, where wagers exceeded 103 million euros ($120 million) on electoral outcomes.

The regulatory response underscores a broader pattern: prediction markets that allow users to bet on real-world political and economic events are facing mounting legal barriers worldwide. Understanding this landscape matters for both users and platforms navigating an increasingly fragmented regulatory environment.

Portugal’s Enforcement Action Signals Broader Regulatory Shift

Polymarket operates in a legal gray zone across many jurisdictions, and Portugal’s move reflects a hardening stance against platforms offering political betting. The SRIJ issued a directive forcing the platform to cease Portuguese operations within 48 hours, citing violations of the country’s 2015 online gambling law. Under Portuguese regulation, only sports betting, casino games, and horse racing wagers are permitted—political betting remains strictly prohibited, whether on domestic or international elections.

The regulator’s statement was unambiguous: “The website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal, as national law prohibits betting operations regarding political events, be they domestic or international.” What makes this enforcement notable is the scale of violation—over 100 million euros in political bets within days indicated the platform had achieved significant penetration despite regulatory prohibition.

A Rapidly Expanding Global Prohibition List

Polymarket’s troubles extend far beyond Portugal. The platform now faces restrictions in more than 30 countries spanning multiple regions: Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and Ukraine have all taken action. Each jurisdiction has adopted slightly different enforcement strategies, revealing how prediction markets sit uncomfortably within existing gambling and securities frameworks.

Belgium has taken an aggressive stance, completely blacklisting the site. France opted for a middle ground, allowing users to access Polymarket in “view-only” mode that prevents actual betting. Ukraine recently joined enforcement efforts as part of a wider online gambling crackdown. Meanwhile, other prediction markets including Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless navigate similar restrictions, though some remain accessible in certain countries where enforcement remains limited.

The pattern suggests regulators view prediction markets as either gambling platforms (triggering gaming law restrictions) or potential securities offerings (inviting derivatives regulation). This dual classification challenge explains the inconsistent global response.

The Regulatory Barrier for Prediction Market Adoption

What started as niche platforms for political enthusiasts has evolved into multi-million-dollar markets attracting mainstream attention. That growth has triggered alarm bells in regulatory agencies worldwide, particularly around election betting, which many democracies view as incompatible with electoral integrity or anti-gambling policy.

Polymarket, founded in 2020, has achieved remarkable reach despite fragmented restrictions. The platform’s ability to attract 100+ million euros in Portuguese bets alone demonstrates demand for decentralized prediction mechanisms. However, the regulatory trajectory suggests this may represent peak accessibility for the platform in mature markets.

Broader Industry Implications

Beyond Polymarket specifically, this enforcement wave carries implications for the Web3 ecosystem’s relationship with traditional regulators. The SEC recently clarified that tokenized stocks face existing securities rules regardless of blockchain recording, signaling that regulatory frameworks will adapt to capture emerging crypto applications rather than creating exemptions for blockchain infrastructure.

The convergence of restrictions across prediction markets, tokenized securities guidance, and gambling law enforcement reflects a broader regulatory consensus: blockchain-based platforms operating in traditionally regulated domains cannot escape oversight simply by adopting decentralized architectures.

For users and platforms, the practical reality is clear: the days of global, frictionless access to decentralized betting markets face a growing list of national exceptions as regulators systematize their oversight of crypto-native financial activities.