Dawson's view on Bitcoin's bearish signal, 30% chance of correction below $80,000 by June

Derive.xyz Protocol Research Director Dossen recently analyzed the options market and projected a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Currently, BTC is trading around $88,050, with a 24-hour decline of 2.59%. According to Dossen, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by June 26 is 30%, while the chance of rising above $120,000 in the same period is only 19%.

Contradicting Institutional Expectations, Clear Downward Signal from the Options Market

Bitcoin temporarily broke through $95,000 in early 2026, but options traders’ positioning is signaling differently from the spot market. Dossen’s analysis indicates that the options market shows a clear downward bias, confirmed by high open interest concentrated in put options between $75,000 and $80,000.

It is also noteworthy that the options skew (the price difference between calls and puts) remains negative. This clearly reflects market concerns about short-term price adjustments, which Dossen describes as a “definite bearish tilt.” Similar positioning is observed on Deribit, a major centralized options exchange, suggesting that this bearish outlook is widely shared across the market.

Geopolitical Concerns Triggering Bitcoin Price Plunge

Dossen emphasizes that the current bearish signals are not merely technical corrections but stem from real risk factors. The Greenland acquisition plan by President Donald Trump and threats of tariffs on European imports are emerging as new variables.

Following recent tariff comments, Bitcoin’s price plummeted below $91,000. This recalls the case in April 2025, when Trump’s large-scale tariff announcement caused significant turmoil in the crypto market, with Bitcoin dropping to $75,000. Dossen pointed out that “the rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe—especially around Greenland—are increasing the risk of a regime shift to a highly volatile environment that has not yet been fully reflected in spot prices.”

Market Sentiment Read Through Open Interest in Put Options

Examining the distribution of open interest among traders reveals the true level of concern in the market. Both Derive.xyz and Deribit show significant open interest concentrated in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000. This indicates that the market is preparing not only for a drop below $80,000 but also for a correction into the mid-$70,000s.

Options work like sports betting. Traders pay a small premium to enter into “what-if” contracts at specific price levels. For call options (bullish bets), if the price exceeds the predetermined level, they can buy low and realize substantial gains. For put options (bearish bets), if the price falls below the set level, they can sell high and cash out. Both sides risk losing their entry costs and premiums if the market moves contrary to expectations.

Relative Weakness of Bitcoin Amid Rebound in Physical Assets

Interestingly, Dossen’s analysis suggests a broad shift in market psychology. While the price of gold per ounce has surged past $5,500, indicating extreme optimism in precious metals, similar sentiment indicators for cryptocurrencies remain in fear territory. This implies that despite the “real asset” narrative, some investors still prefer physical gold and silver as stores of value over Bitcoin. As Bitcoin continues to be traded as a high-beta risk asset, the appeal of physical assets appears to be increasing comparatively.

Combining these options market signals and geopolitical concerns, Dossen predicts that Bitcoin could face increased volatility and downward pressure in the coming months.