XRP's behavior pattern replicates the 2022 dilemma, with investors facing polarization risks

Ripple (XRP) is currently priced at $1.87, down 2.59% over the past 24 hours. On-chain analysis data shows that XRP is exhibiting behavioral patterns similar to those at the beginning of 2022, a warning signal that has attracted widespread market attention. According to the latest research from on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode, XRP investors are experiencing a clear divergence, which may indicate upcoming selling pressure.

On-Chain Data Reveals Polarized Investor Behavior Patterns

Glassnode’s on-chain data indicates a significant split in the current XRP investor structure: novice investors who bought within the past week to a month are realizing profits, while mid-term holders with a holding period of 6 to 12 months are still deep in losses. This stark contrast forms a risky behavioral pattern—the profit-taking opportunities for new entrants sharply contrast with the trapped positions of long-term investors.

This divergence is particularly concerning because it creates an unstable market foundation. When new buyers are in profit while older holders are at a loss, the market is prone to a “change of the guard” dilemma—new investors tend to take profits, while long-term trapped holders wait for an opportunity to exit. This dual selling pressure can sustain downward movement on the price.

Deep Concerns Behind the $2 Psychological Level

The $2 price level has historically been a key psychological threshold for XRP. According to weekly data from Glassnode, each time XRP retests the $2 mark since mid-2025, it is accompanied by weekly realized losses ranging from $500 million to $1.2 billion. This indicates that many investors choose to cut losses at this level rather than increase their positions.

These large-scale realized losses reveal a harsh reality: $2 is no longer a accumulation point but a “escape hatch.” Investors trapped at higher prices are taking advantage of price rebounds near $2 to reduce their positions and stop losses at more reasonable levels. Over time, this “mass liquidation” pattern can turn the psychological threshold into a genuine technical resistance.

Intensifying Battle Between Long-Term Holders and Short-Term Buyers

XRP is currently experiencing a subtle shift in power. On one hand, short-term buyers are actively accumulating XRP at prices below the average cost of long-term holders, resulting in immediate paper gains. On the other hand, long-term holders who bought at higher prices are waiting for any rebound opportunities to exit.

This dynamic was also observed in February 2022, when XRP hovered around $0.78, and over the following months, the price declined to around $0.30. That decline was driven by similar investor divergence—holders with higher cost bases kept exiting during rebounds, gradually exhausting upward momentum.

Long-Term Impact of Divergence Pressure

It’s important to note that this behavioral pattern does not necessarily predict the exact direction of XRP’s price, but it does signal underlying market risks. As long as this “new-old investor divergence” persists, selling pressure lurks behind every rebound. Especially when this divergence becomes more entrenched, trapped investors’ desire to exit will intensify.

Historical experience suggests that such market structures typically require a clear trigger to break—either a dramatic price surge (enough to restore confidence among trapped investors and prompt additional investments) or a sustained decline (forcing trapped investors to face reality and accelerate their exits). Until one of these scenarios occurs, XRP investors are in a delicate and risky balancing period.

The current market situation indicates that XRP’s behavioral pattern is echoing some past characteristics, serving as a reminder for investors to observe on-chain data changes more cautiously. While history may not repeat exactly, the investor psychological divergence reflected in this pattern remains a noteworthy concern.