The earliest batch of Ethereum miners and early heavy holders of ETH who have a historical-level understanding of the industry and technology are at the top of the game. In the latter half of the bull market, they chose to reduce their positions and exit too early, missing out on the main upward wave that followed. Looking back now, the opportunity cost of missing out is not a few million or tens of millions, but close to 5 billion RMB. This is not a matter of judgment ability, but a cycle + human nature issue.

Many people might think, you’ve already made so much, why not be satisfied? But the market never looks at your past achievements; it only cares whether you’ve followed the next main trend. The real cruelty is not that you don’t understand ETH, or that you haven’t ridden the big waves, but that you chose to exit early when it was hardest to hold on. The most difficult part of a cycle is never buying, but selling! In the latter part of the market, it’s easy to be limited by your own “experience.”

Technology and human nature are two different things. Many people in the crypto space don’t understand the blockchain space, and those in the blockchain space don’t understand crypto. Programmers don’t understand bosses, and bosses don’t understand programmers. Those who truly benefit from a full cycle often understand a bit of both—know the technology but aren’t superstitious about it, understand human nature but aren’t driven by emotions.

That’s also why I’ve always emphasized cycles. It’s not because technology isn’t important, but because at the price level, cycles are more important than technology. To put it simply, the crypto world makes money from cycles, not from code.