XRP falls into a "impasse adalah" deadlock? On-chain data hints at the risk of history repeating itself

Ripple (XRP) current price is $1.83, down 4.89% in the past 24 hours, at a delicate market turning point. According to on-chain data analysis platform Glassnode’s observations, XRP holder cost distribution is showing a dangerous pattern—this pattern previously appeared in February 2022, leading to a prolonged downtrend. Short-term buyers have already taken profits, while long-term holders are still waiting patiently for impas adalah (break-even) opportunities.

Glassnode On-Chain Observation: Who Is Profiting, Who Is Bleeding

On-chain data shows that recent entrants over the past one to four weeks are accumulating XRP at a cost below that of long-term holders. This cost inversion phenomenon may seem complex, but the core logic is straightforward: new buyers are scooping up at cheap prices, while investors who entered six to twelve months ago are still trapped, waiting for impas adalah.

Glassnode’s analysis indicates that this market structure is currently at a critical point. When short-term buyers enjoy unrealized gains while long-term holders remain deeply underwater, any price stagnation or decline can trigger a surge of selling pressure from those trapped. Many early entrants will give up on the dream of impas adalah and choose to cut losses.

The Truth Behind the Frequent Testing of the $2 Psychological Level

Since mid-2025, every time XRP approaches the $2 psychological key level, it has been accompanied by significant realized losses—data shows weekly losses of up to $500 million to $1.2 billion. This is no coincidence but a true reflection of holder behavior.

$2 has become a psychological barrier in the market. When the price nears this level, many long-term holders face a painful choice: continue waiting for impas adalah and endure psychological stress, or cut losses in time. On-chain data shows that more and more people are choosing the latter, taking advantage of each rebound to escape. This explains why large realized losses frequently occur around the $2 mark.

In contrast, recent entrants in these price ranges are more profitable, with weaker selling desires. This divergence in holder structure is an invisible force suppressing further price increases.

A Historical Reflection from February 2022: Will the Pattern Repeat?

History often offers insights. In February 2022, XRP was trading around $0.78, and the on-chain holder cost structure was eerily similar to today—short-term speculators were highly profitable, while long-term holders were hopelessly waiting for impas adalah. What happened next? XRP entered a long decline, eventually dropping to $0.30 mid-year, and many investors’ impas adalah dreams ultimately burst.

While history does not repeat exactly, the pattern has reference value. The current XRP setup is approaching the dangerous critical point of that year—the moment when market sentiment began to reverse.

Balancing Current Risks and Opportunities

Real-time data shows XRP holder addresses have reached 7.55 million, indicating broad participation. But the number of addresses does not equate to price support strength. What truly determines the trend is when those holding large positions, waiting for impas adalah, give up hope.

Currently, XRP is at the center of a tug-of-war between new and old holders. On one side are recent buyers with stable profit momentum; on the other are long-term holders with accumulated positions waiting to exit. If this balance is broken, the consequences could be significant.

On-chain data consensus is clear: the current market structure is unstable and increasingly resembles that critical moment in early 2022. For long-term investors waiting for impas adalah, a reassessment of whether to hold firm or cut losses is necessary. For new entrants, the current profit mechanisms are valuable—yet they should also recognize that this advantage may not last forever.