Watch investment defies the trend and rises, how does the second-hand watch market remain unaffected?

Amid the significant pullback in cryptocurrencies, the luxury watch market has shown a completely different trend. According to the latest data from WatchCharts, despite Bitcoin’s price pressure (current quote at $85.36K, down 3.73% from the previous day), the secondary market for high-end watches has still achieved approximately 4% growth over the past six months. This phenomenon reflects not only a simple market contrast but also reveals a deeper reconsideration by investors of asset allocation concepts.

Luxury Goods Contrast During the Crypto Winter

Data comparisons are enough to illustrate the point: over the past half-year, Bitcoin has fallen about 25%, and the CoinDesk 20 index has declined over 30%. Meanwhile, second-hand watches from top brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet have maintained steady performance. A report jointly released by Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts indicates that this divergence is not due to a new wave of market prosperity but reflects a market recovery process after two years of adjustment.

Factors such as inventory clearance, seller pricing resilience, and approximately 7% retail price increase since early 2025 have collectively laid the foundation for this stability. Especially, Rolex’s launch of certified second-hand channels, which standardize transaction processes and reduce market volatility, has injected institutional support into the high-end second-hand watch market.

Scarcity Premium vs. Liquidity Dilemma

When investors make asset choices under macro pressures, a clear pattern emerges: rapidly changing financial assets are falling out of favor, while tangible assets with genuine scarcity are highly sought after. Gold prices have risen nearly 70% since early 2025, and silver has increased by 150%. This rising trend in precious metals starkly contrasts with Bitcoin’s weak performance.

The resilience of the second-hand watch market precisely reflects this investor shift. Compared to the high volatility and hard-to-grasp market sentiment of cryptocurrencies, second-hand watches offer tangible value, credibility built over history, and features that are hard to depreciate. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the main beneficiaries of the recovery are brands with real pricing power, which essentially confirms investors’ premiums on brand endorsement and scarcity.

Macro Logic Behind Market Divergence

2024 marked an important turning point: the long-term correlation between luxury watches and cryptocurrencies was broken. Previously, both asset classes were driven by loose liquidity and speculative excess. But as the outlook for spot ETFs dissipated and financial tightening occurred, market participants began to differentiate between investment products with different risk profiles.

Bitcoin is more like a high-beta risk asset, with its price jumps driven far more by sentiment than fundamentals. In contrast, tangible assets like second-hand watches and gold are regarded as “true stores of value,” with limited supply, stable industrial demand, and geopolitical policies supporting their fundamental value. This explains why, during periods of rising macro risks, funds systematically flow from digital tokens to physical investments.

Lasting Support of the Second-Hand Watch Market

The continuous rise of the WatchCharts index indicates that the second-hand watch market has transitioned from speculation-driven to fundamentals-driven. Inventory adjustments to reasonable levels, seller mentality shifting from dumping to holding, and steady retail price increases—all these factors combine to form a self-healing market process.

Top brands like Rolex effectively avoid the risk of price disorder by controlling secondary channels and maintaining brand premiums. This control over supply and pricing power is precisely something that open networks like Bitcoin cannot provide. When investors begin to prioritize risk management over pure profit expectations, this structural advantage transforms into long-term appeal.

Outlook: From Speculative Divergence to Asset Reformation

The current market divergence is not a temporary phenomenon but a reflection of deepening investor cognition. Against the backdrop of increasing global macro uncertainties, traders are systematically reallocating their portfolios, clearly distinguishing between fast-flowing financial assets and slowly appreciating tangible scarce goods. The steady performance of the second-hand watch market is the most tangible manifestation of this shift.