Declining Volume Signals Pressure Bitcoin—Rising US Treasury Yields Threaten Risk Market Rally

Global financial markets are experiencing an intense sell-off, with volume gauges showing massive pressure on speculative assets. The main trigger was a surge in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond which reached 4.27%—the highest level in the last four months—creating a domino effect that spread to all risk asset classes, from bitcoin to tech stocks.

The latest data shows bitcoin has been depressed, slumping to $84.91K with a 5.19% decline in the last 24 hours, as the tech-dominated Nasdaq index also recorded a decline of more than 1.6%. The trading volume and activity gauge reveals the intensity of investors’ exodus from volatile sectors, reflecting drastic changes in market behavior.

Volume Measuring Tool Reveals Pressure on Speculative Assets

When Treasury yields spiked, global banks responded by raising benchmark interest rates for all credit products—mortgages, corporate loans, and other instruments. This phenomenon is known as “financial tightening,” which makes investors avoid assets with high volatility and potential for large yet risky returns.

Volume measuring instruments prove this narrative. Trading activity on cryptocurrencies and growth stocks showed a significant decline, indicating that institutional and retail investors are starting to close their speculative positions. The previously dominant buying momentum is now being replaced by selling pressure that is measured through the ever-decreasing trading volume metric.

Globally, government bonds in Europe, Japan, and the United States all recorded gains in yields. Japan in particular saw a sharp rise in its government bond yields as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced plans to cut taxes on food, prompting market expectations of higher fiscal spending and increased bond supply.

Treasury Geopolitics: Trump Tariffs and Asset Selling Concerns

A surge in Treasury yields is not just a technical phenomenon of the market. Behind the 4.27% figure there is real geopolitical tension. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting Feb. 1, with an escalation to 25% by June 1, if negotiations over the Greenland acquisition do not reach an agreement.

Speculation is circulating in the market that European bondholders — who control $12.6 trillion in U.S. assets including Treasuries and stocks — may sell their positions in retaliation. Although analysts emphasize this is easier said than done, as the majority of assets are owned by the private sector and not government funds, these concerns alone are enough to push Treasury yields higher and create uncertainty in the market.

Split Market Sentiment: Gold Soars, Bitcoin Lags

The movement of Treasury yields has created an interesting divergence in the behavior of alternative “store of value” assets. Gold hit a record high above $5,500 an ounce, with nominal valuations jumping around $1.6 trillion in a single trading day. The Fear & Greed index for gold tracked by JM Bullion shows extreme optimism in the precious metal, reflecting the migration of capital from digital assets to physical assets.

In contrast to gold, bitcoin faces tougher challenges. Despite the growing narrative of “real assets” and “store of value” in financial media, bitcoin is still traded like a high-beta asset—reacting sensitively to changes in interest rates and risk sentiment. While institutional investors looking for a hedge against inflation and financial uncertainty prefer physical gold and silver instead of digital tokens.

This divergence is revealed through market sentiment indicators. The Fear & Greed Index for cryptocurrencies remains in the fear zone, in dramatic contrast to gold’s optimism, revealing that investors still consider bitcoin to be a speculative asset rather than a true safe haven.

What’s Next for Bitcoin and the Risk Market?

With U.S. Treasury yields continuing to test past four-month highs and volume gauges continuing to show pressure from institutional investors, the near-term outlook for bitcoin and growth stocks remains challenging. Any policymakers’ comments about fiscal spending or geopolitical intentions from Washington could trigger a new wave of selling.

However, history shows that this cycle of financial tightening does not last forever. Investors who hold positions and use volume gauges to identify exodus endpoints may encounter repositioning opportunities when the pressure eases. For now, the market is sending a clear message: beware of speculative assets amid global interest rate uncertainty.