Options markets determine the probability of testing the $80 000 level for Bitcoin

A sharp drop in bitcoin prices to $84.89 thousand. with a contraction of -5.32% in 24 hours, confirmed market participants’ concerns about further correction. According to options traders, the probability of BTC falling below the $80,000 mark by the end of June is 30%, while the chances of a break above $120,000 are estimated at only 19%.

Such forecasts come from activity on decentralized platforms, where traders openly position themselves on a negative scenario. On Derive.xyz and Deribit, there is a significant concentration of active put positions in the $75,000–$80,000 corridor, which signals the expectation of a deeper correction to the levels of the middle of $70,000.

Signals from the derivative contract market

We are talking about options — tools that allow you to bet on the future price of bitcoin during a fixed premium. When choosing the path to buy cheaply and sell expensively, a position in call options is activated, and with the opposite strategy, a position in put options is activated. It is the accumulation of puts with lower strikes that reveals the collective forecast of the participants: the probability of price revision to the values of April 2025, when BTC fell to $75,000 during the first wave of tariffs.

The negative inclination of options markets, where the call put ratio remains negative, confirms concerns about the risk of a decline in the near term. According to analysts, this imbalance indicates a significant low price impact during the quarter.

Geopolitical threats and trade risks

Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Europe over the Greenland proposal are pushing President Donald Trump to threaten 10% tariffs on European imports. This move directly affects the crypto market, as such macroeconomic turbulence causes massive liquidations of positions.

When BTC fell below $91,000, the network recorded more than $650 million. liquidations throughout the crypto market. Derivatives traders are increasingly anticipating a regime with increased volatility, which is currently under-accounted for in spot asset prices.

Probability of correction and traders’ expectations

Sean Dawson, head of protocol research, noted that geopolitical risks have the potential to put the market into a mode of greater volatility. He stressed: “Growing tensions between the US and Europe increase the likelihood of a transition to extreme price fluctuations, which could prove destructive for high-leveraged positions.”

Indicators of financing indicate a possible approach to a local low, but recent attacks on the dollar’s strength and macroeconomic fluctuations may delay the reversal until the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy. Meanwhile, while gold and stocks have found equilibrium after worse sessions, the cryptocurrency remains in weakness, raising questions about the true level of resistance.

Against this background, the informed probability of BTC falling to the $80,000 level looks realistic in the context of such internal conflicts and macroeconomic imbalances.