Asia political map redraws Bitcoin's $100,000 test: between squeezes and geopolitical dynamics

The Asian crypto landscape is configured as a nerve center in the crucial phase that sees Bitcoin competing for the $100,000 threshold. With the Hong Kong sessions marking the timing of the global market, the contemporary Asia political map emerges as a decisive element in understanding the movements of the major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin currently stands at $84,820 with a decline of 4.89% in the last 24 hours, marking a contraction from $95,000 in the previous Asian sessions. The most recent data points to structural volatility rather than clear directionality: the market remains fragmented between short-term upward pressures and significant technical resistance.

Asia scenario: between probability and capital flows

Forecasting platforms maintain a 54% probability of reaching $100,000 in January according to contracts on Polymarket, however expectations beyond this threshold drop dramatically. Only 22% see Bitcoin reaching $105,000, while 8% expect it to push up to $110,000. This scenario reflects the widespread belief among Asian market makers that $100,000 represents a significant resistance level rather than a barrier that can be crossed.

The recent momentum - with the very brief crossing of $97,000 followed by a correction to the current $84,820 - illustrates how fluctuations are driven by mechanical phenomena rather than structural macroeconomic catalysts. ETF flows continue to play a central role, with more than $800 million in inflows supporting the bullish moves in recent weeks, the highest recorded in three months.

Flowdesk analysts describe the recent upward pressure as the result of “violent coverage of short positions”, accelerated by the intervention of call option buyers in an environment of increasing volatility. Market skews have shifted towards more bullish sentiment, although this dynamic reflects tactical-speculative behaviour rather than changes in long-term expectations.

Map of regional markets: pressures from the east

The Hong Kong session reveals mixed pressures. As Bitcoin retreats, Ether is holding more tenaciously around $2,820, supported by sustained demand for yield and stable funding rates. Ether’s outperformance relative to Bitcoin suggests more selective risk management among Asian players.

In the broader market, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.52% on Friday, underperforming the overall Asia-Pacific address. This divergence highlights how the map of Asian geopolitical dynamics also influences the behavior of traditional markets, with spillovers on the liquidity available for crypto assets. The easing of geopolitical tensions over Iran and President Trump’s statements about the continuity of the Federal Reserve’s leadership under Jerome Powell have temporarily moderated risk aversion, but without reversing the downward trend.

Critical Levels and Technical Support

Technical analysis reveals a crucial map of resistances and supports for the next moves. Bitcoin broke significantly below the 100-week simple moving average (around $85,000), a sign that sellers have regained control after two months of support at that level. The next critical zone to watch is around $75,000, where buyers had intervened significantly in April to block an earlier downtrend.

Further downside could lead Bitcoin to test the 200-week moving average near $58,000, while reverting to a bullish scenario would require a sustained rally above $95,000. Enflux pointed out that current tests highlight “reactive spikes in the absence of broader geopolitical or macroeconomic catalysts,” suggesting that tactical positioning trumps directional bets engaged in the context of the contemporary Asian political map.

Developments in the crypto sector and related dynamics

Significant regulatory discussions emerge: tokenization firms have rejected Coinbase’s statements regarding cryptocurrency shares in the regulatory bill. In parallel, the CEO of Bank of America warned that stablecoins could drain trillions of deposits from the traditional banking system, a topic of geopolitical relevance considering the implications for Asian financial systems.

Pudgy Penguins emerges as one of the most robust NFT brands in this cycle, transforming from a speculative “digital luxury good” into a multi-vertical IP platform. The strategy involves acquiring users through mainstream channels - toys, retail partnerships and viral media - and then integrating them into Web3 through games, NFTs and the PENGU token. The ecosystem now spans physical-digital products (with over $13 million in retail sales and more than 1 million units sold), games and experiences (Pudgy Party surpassed 500,000 downloads in two weeks), and a widely distributed token (airdrop to over 6 million wallets).

Perspectives and implications of the geopolitical map

The Asia political map remains central to defining the next movements in the crypto market. While Bitcoin navigates critical technical levels between $84,820 and possible tests of $100,000, the structure of flows, the activity of Asian market makers, and the regional geopolitical environment will continue to dictate the timing of price evolution. The market remains in a discovery phase, where real macroeconomic catalysts weigh less than mechanical dynamics and short-term speculative pressures.