From 91000 to 85000: Bitcoin adjusts in market depth amid tariff storm

When the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on President Trump’s tariff powers on January 10, the crypto market was shaken violently. Bitcoin, which once held steady around $91,000, has now fallen to $85,260, a 24-hour drop of 4.96%. Behind this decline of thousands of dollars, it reflects not only a simple technical correction, but also a deep concern among investors about policy uncertainty.

In Polymarket’s prediction market, traders set the probability of the court upholding Trump’s tariff power at only 24%, which means that the market generally expects the Supreme Court to impose restrictions on presidential power. Interactive Brokers economist Jose Torres then warned that if the court blocks the tariffs, the government may turn to more complex workarounds, “These alternative tools are both slower and narrower in scope, more likely to trigger lawsuits, and prolong market uncertainty.” "

How policy risks are hitting the crypto market

When fiscal uncertainty rises, long-term U.S. Treasury yields usually rise, tightening global liquidity. This combination poses a traditional pressure on cryptocurrencies – as digital assets are extremely sensitive to changes in interest rates. CoinDesk’s analysis shows that the tariff shock event in the first quarter of 2025, dubbed “tariff rage” by the market, is characterized by a sharp but brief pullback driven by chain liquidations, declining leverage demand, and momentum selling.

However, it is worth noting that during this period, trend-following strategies (i.e., entering positions when prices rise and closing positions when falling) achieved excess returns by reducing risk early. This suggests that Bitcoin tends to stabilize faster than traditional stocks in an ambiguous policy environment, and its correlation gradually weakens.

Unique attitude of the Asian market

As potential beneficiaries of Trump’s tariff policy, Asian traders have shown unexpected rationality. Instead of focusing too much on the fate of the tariffs themselves, they have shifted their focus to the policy confusion period after the court ruling—the window in which governments look for alternative tools and markets fall into continued uncertainty. This change in mindset reflects market participants’ adaptation to long-term uncertainty.

Mainstream crypto assets pulled back across the board

Technical pressure on Bitcoin: From the psychological integer level of $91,000 to $85,260, Bitcoin lost the key psychological level. Although it rebounded by 0.54% within 1 hour, the 24-hour decline was still negative, indicating that the downward momentum still prevailed.

Ethereum is under pressure at the same time: The price of Ethereum has now fallen to $2,840, down 5.55% in 24 hours, even surpassing Bitcoin. This suggests that the market’s risk aversion has spilled over across mainstream assets.

Dogecoin’s meme coin vulnerability: Dogecoin performed the worst in this round of corrections, with a 24-hour drop of 5.69%. The coin fell below the key support level of $0.1218 in huge volume, and traders are closely watching the $0.115-$0.12 range as a short-term decision zone. A regain of $0.1218 would show signs of stability, while a break below $0.115 could open further downside, targeting $0.108 to $0.10.

Expected shifts in macro assets

HSBC’s outlook for gold offers an interesting contrast. The bank predicts that gold prices are expected to climb to $5,050 per ounce in early 2026, citing rising geopolitical risks and high debt. However, they also warned that volatility could increase later in the year if the risk environment eases or the Fed turns hawkish. This echoes the risk sentiment in the crypto market – uncertainty is the dominant factor in the current market.

Other developments in the crypto ecosystem

Pudgy Penguins consumer goods turn: This NFT project is evolving from a speculative “digital luxury” to a multi-consumer IP platform. The strategy is to acquire users through toys, retail collaborations, and viral media before importing them into Web3 through games, NFTs, and PENGU tokens. At present, the ecosystem has included more than $13 million in retail sales and more than 1 million physical product sales, and the game app Pudgy Party has exceeded 500,000 downloads in two weeks. While the market currently prices Pudgy higher than its traditional IP peers, long-term success still depends on the execution of retail, gaming, and token utility.

The intersection of politicians and crypto: Trump has made it clear that he will not bail out FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried through a pardon, which has caused a cold water on the political expectations of the crypto industry. Meanwhile, Bank of America upgraded Coinbase to “Buy” due to Base’s prospects and tokenization potential, demonstrating traditional finance’s optimism about crypto infrastructure.

The market is currently at a high level of policy uncertainty, and the historical reference price of $91,000 is being repeatedly recited by investors, as if asking: How long will this adjustment last? The answer may not be revealed until the government unveils its alternative policy tools.