Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Are Now Offloading Less Aggressively, Signaling Potential Rally Support

Bitcoin has returned to a challenging price zone at around $85.25K that previously capped gains, yet market dynamics are shifting in favor of bulls. The critical difference this time: long-term holders are no longer distributing their holdings as aggressively as they were in 2025, potentially reducing the supply headwinds that repeatedly stalled price momentum.

According to on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, this moderation in selling activity represents a meaningful shift in market sentiment. Where long-term holders—wallets that have held positions for over five months—previously offloaded more than 100,000 BTC weekly during the peak euphoria above $100,000 last year, that figure has now moderated to approximately 12,800 BTC per week. This reduction in distribution intensity eases structural selling pressure that had been acting as a brake on sustained rallies.

The Dramatic Shift in Profit-Taking Behavior

The numbers tell a compelling story. During 2025’s explosive rally to lifetime highs, long-term holders were realizing profits at an aggressive pace—collectively distributing over $9.62 billion in weekly gains. Today’s environment presents a starkly different picture: the same investor cohort is taking substantially smaller positions off the table each week.

“This moderation suggests profit-taking remains active, but far less aggressive than during prior distribution phases,” Glassnode noted in recent analysis. The implication is significant. When investors who have held through multiple market cycles choose to reduce their selling intensity, it often signals confidence or at least reduced urgency to exit positions. Whether that reflects strategic conviction or simply satiated profit-taking remains an open question.

Why Reduced Selling Pressure Matters at This Price Zone

Bitcoin’s recent 10% two-week surge has pushed prices back into the historic $93,000-$110,000 supply cluster—the very zone where long-term holders had previously concentrated their profit-taking. This convergence matters because it presents a critical test: will the market absorb this distribution without collapsing, or will renewed supply pressure stall another rally attempt?

The pattern since November has been disappointingly repetitive. Each attempt to stage a sustained recovery has encountered significant selling interest around the lower edge of that supply zone, preventing prices from establishing structural higher ground. Glassnode emphasized that “absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal,” highlighting the market’s dependency on these veteran investors moderating their exit strategy.

The current environment differs meaningfully. With distribution intensity significantly reduced, the market faces fewer headwinds precisely when it needs them least. This could be the ingredient that finally allows BTC to break through and establish a foothold above this historically problematic zone.

Market Dynamics and Broader Risk Considerations

While moderating profit-taking by long-term holders supports the bullish narrative toward $100,000, the trading environment remains vulnerable to external shocks. Potential geopolitical escalation between the U.S. and Iran, for instance, could trigger broad-based risk aversion and force Bitcoin lower regardless of on-chain dynamics.

Beyond Bitcoin itself, the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues evolving. Pudgy Penguins has emerged as one of the strongest NFT-native brands this cycle, successfully transitioning from speculative digital goods into a multi-vertical consumer platform. Its strategy of acquiring users through mainstream channels—toys, retail partnerships, viral media—before onboarding them into Web3 through games and the PENGU token demonstrates a maturing approach to ecosystem building. With phygital products exceeding $13 million in retail sales and over one million units sold, plus gaming experiences surpassing 500,000 downloads, the project is executing against ambitious plans.

Dogecoin Tests Critical Support Amid Broader Pullback

Dogecoin faced pressure alongside the broader market retreat, declining approximately 5.69% in the 24-hour period as Bitcoin consolidated. The memecoin broke below key support at $0.1218 on elevated volume, transforming that level into near-term resistance even after a brief bounce toward $0.115.

Traders are monitoring the $0.115–$0.12 zone as a critical decision point. A successful hold and reclaim of $0.1218 would suggest market stabilization, while any breakdown below $0.115 could open the door toward deeper support in the $0.108–$0.10 range. The technical setup indicates that sentiment-driven assets like DOGE remain vulnerable in risk-off environments, even as Bitcoin’s structural picture continues improving on reduced seller pressure.