Bitcoin between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030: Ark Invest identifies key dilution factor

Ark Invest maintains its ambitious forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a range of $300,000 to $1.5 million per token by 2030. However, according to David Puell, research analyst at Ark Invest, the dilution factor now represents a critical variable capable of redirecting this upward trajectory. The Bitcoin market has crossed a threshold since the regulatory approval of spot ETFs in 2024, transforming not only capital flows, but also the very nature of institutional demand.

ETF absorption redefines market dynamics

Exchange-traded funds have emerged as the main catalyst for asset redistribution since the beginning of 2024. In approximately 18 months, these products channeled more than $50 billion in net flows, redrawing the landscape of institutional access to Bitcoin. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have emerged as the clear leaders, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin and tightening market availability.

This massive concentration has produced tangible effects. Puell points out that ETFs and digital asset treasury structures together absorb about 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, a performance that far exceeds initial expectations. This capture represents one of the main drivers of the price movements observed until 2025, with likely extensions in 2026. Digital asset treasury firms, which hold cryptocurrencies as a strategic reserve, amplify this phenomenon by locking up more tokens.

From Digital Gold to Stablecoins: How Dilution Factors Shape Demand

Ark’s valuation framework is based on three main narratives: digital gold, institutional adoption, and store of value. Puell confirms that the bearish scenario ($300,000) and the base scenario (around $710,000) are mainly fueled by the digital gold narrative. The upside potential of the optimistic scenario ($1.5 million) draws its strength from massive institutional investment.

However, Ark detected a subtle but significant dilution factor: some of the safe-haven demand traditionally intended for Bitcoin has gradually shifted to stablecoins, especially in emerging markets. This partial diversion represents a form of dilution of direct demand, forcing Ark to readjust the composition of its assumptions. Puell says that this dilution factor is more than offset by a stronger-than-expected interest in store of value use cases. “We are maintaining our objectives overall,” he says, “but the composition of demand has evolved.” The long-term thesis remains intact, even if the growth vectors have diversified.

Falling volatility attracts conservative investors

A major structural change is transforming the profile of Bitcoin holders. Volatility has reached historic lows, while maximum withdrawals during bull markets remain exceptionally moderate. In previous cycles, corrections of 30% to 50% were the norm. Since the 2022 low, Bitcoin has not seen any decline of more than about 36%, an atypical phenomenon.

This relative stability opens a window of access to segments of investors previously put off by catastrophic risk. Puell observes that sophisticated managers are adopting gradual accumulation strategies rather than aggressive parabolic moves, scattering liquidity to take advantage of moderate pullbacks. This behavior naturally flattens volatility and speeds up recovery cycles. The improved risk-adjusted returns reinforce Ark’s view that Bitcoin’s maturity is asserting itself not only technologically, but also in terms of financial stability.

The dynamics of 2025-2026: institutional adoption versus early adopters’ profit-taking

The paradigm shift lies in the very nature of the opposing forces shaping the market. Puell identifies two major tensions: on the one hand, early adopters, who have owned it for more than a decade, gradually become inclined to realize their capital gains when prices approach new highs. On the other hand, institutions via ETFs and treasury strategies continue to accumulate at a steady pace. This opposition will determine the trajectory of prices well beyond 2025.

Puell also points out that about 36% of Bitcoin’s total supply remains effectively locked by long-term holders, according to on-chain data showing network activity of around 60% since 2018. This immobilized reserve provides a solid basis for assessment scenarios. Macroeconomic conditions could amplify this dynamic. Increased liquidity in the US, resulting from possible monetary easing, would historically be a favourable catalyst for risky assets, including Bitcoin. Puell insists: “For Bitcoin, US liquidity takes precedence over the global M2 aggregate”, reflecting the dominant weight of the US capital base.

Structural tailwinds and 2030 outlook

Puell lists several structural catalysts: the increasing regulatory clarity under the current administration, the emergence of staking-indexed ETFs, and the obvious hype at the state level, particularly in Texas. While a potential federal strategic reserve does not generate new demand, it would strengthen a base of holders with little incentive to sell their positions.

Looking beyond 2026, Ark favors a five-year investment horizon rather than short-term price targets. Bitcoin’s maturation as an institutional, less volatile asset owned by regulated entities could prove to be as decisive as any specific price level. The dilution factor, far from being an insurmountable obstacle, simply reflects the increasing complexity of a market entering a new phase of development.

Sector moves: Secondary cryptocurrencies under pressure

Alongside Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory, XRP recorded a 5% decline, sliding from $1.91 to $1.80 before stabilizing around $1.83 at the time of writing. The correction is part of a broader flight to safety, disproportionately affecting high-beta tokens during short bear cycles. The breakout of critical support around $1.87 on high volume precipitated the sell-off, reversing the previous week’s gains.

Key levels for XRP are now shaping up around $1.80 as a major support, while a sustained advance above $1.87–$1.90 remains essential to confirm a simple technical pullback rather than the start of a more pronounced correction. These dynamics are a reminder that, even in a long-term bullish environment for Bitcoin, altcoins remain vulnerable to short-term swings in market confidence.