Record Weekly Outflows in Bitcoin ETFs: New Sign of Price Bottom?

The decline in demand for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has once again emerged as a development that the market should pay attention to. According to SoSoValue data, there was a net withdrawal of $1.22 billion in the last week; this is the highest level observed since November. On Tuesday and Wednesday, $479.7 million and $708.7 million were evicted, respectively. During the same period, the price of bitcoin has lost about 5% of its value and has remained almost stable since the beginning of the year. However, historical data reveals that such ETF outflows carry a significant market signal.

Historical Pattern: ETF Outflows Mark Price Bottoms

Historical data shows that such large-scale withdrawals by ETF investors usually occur very close to the local bottoms of the bitcoin price. During a similar four-day withdrawal of $1.22 billion in November, bitcoin formed a bottom of around $80,000 before recovering above $90,000 in the following days.

We saw a similar signal shortly before President Trump’s tariff announcements in early 2025; At that time, Bitcoin fell to $76,000 but then recovered quickly. In August 2024, during the yen carry trade crisis, bitcoin was under significant selling pressure at around $49,000. These examples illustrate that large ETF withdrawals can serve as significant turning points in investor behavior.

Investor Cost and Market Levels: $84,099 Critical Point

According to Glassnode data, the average cost basis for bitcoin ETF investors currently stands at $84,099. This price level has historically served as a significant support area, retraced around $80,000 in November and retested at the start of 2025. Considering that bitcoin is currently trading at $85.16 thousand and has dropped by 4.94% in the last 24 hours, the $84,099 level remains a critical area for the market.

Another noteworthy finding is that approximately 63% of the invested bitcoin wealth is above this cost basis, at more than $88,000. This indicates that the majority of investors are not already in positions with profits, suggesting the need not to lock in any potential losses.

Supply Pressure and Price Action: $85-90K Range

On-chain data indicates a concentrated concentration of supply between $85,000 and $90,000. This level indicates a zone where a large number of investors are ready to sell their positions for profit. On the other hand, the presence of weak support below the $80,000 level suggests the possibility of a deeper decline if this level is broken.

The sum of this data signals that the current market is in a phase of balanced evaluation before the price moves drastically. This increase in ETF outflows can be considered a significant indicator of changing investor sentiment. Whether bitcoin will maintain its $84,099 cost basis in the coming period will play a critical role in determining the direction of the market.