Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are No Longer Aggressively Cashing Out Gains

Bitcoin has returned to the $93,000-$110,000 supply zone that historically challenged its upward momentum, but on-chain data reveals a crucial shift: long-term holders are no longer aggressively liquidating their positions as they did throughout 2025. According to Glassnode’s analysis, this moderation in profit-taking could provide meaningful support for the ongoing price recovery.

The scale of the change is striking. Throughout 2025, when BTC traded well above $100,000, long-term holders—defined as wallets holding coins for over five months—were aggressively dumping over 100,000 BTC ($9.62 billion) in weekly profits. Today, that weekly distribution has decelerated dramatically to just 12,800 BTC, representing a 87% reduction in selling pressure.

Moderating Profit-Taking Offers Reprieve from Supply Pressure

This significant pullback in distribution intensity is precisely what the market needed at this moment. BTC’s recent 10% two-week rally has pushed the price directly into that historically challenging supply zone where long-term holders have historically concentrated their profit-taking activity. In November and beyond, multiple recovery attempts faltered near the lower boundary of this range, halted each time by renewed selling from long-term holders.

Glassnode noted in a recent analysis that “this moderation suggests profit-taking remains active, but far less aggressive than during prior distribution phases.” The firm emphasized that “absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal,” underscoring just how critical the behavior of these veteran investors remains for BTC’s technical structure.

Breaking Past $93K-$110K Range Depends on Sustained Absorption

The historic $93,000-$110,000 zone represents a critical inflection point. Each time BTC has approached these levels in recent months, “renewed sell-side pressure has prevented price from sustaining a structural recovery,” according to Glassnode’s research. However, with long-term holders now distributing coins at a much more measured pace, the obstacle to breaking higher has been substantially reduced.

For bulls, this represents a window of opportunity. If the moderating profit-taking from long-term holders persists, and the market can effectively absorb these distributions without triggering panic selling, BTC could sustain its advance toward the $100,000 psychological milestone and beyond.

Dogecoin Faces Critical Decision Point Amid Risk-Off Environment

While BTC navigates its supply zone, Dogecoin has deteriorated more sharply, declining approximately 6.50% over the past 24 hours to trade near $0.12. The altcoin has broken decisively below the $0.1218 support level on elevated volume, transforming that level into resistance on any attempted bounce. Recent price action has established a $0.115–$0.12 trading range as the critical decision zone for DOGE traders.

The chart structure suggests a precarious situation: a reclaim and hold of the $0.1218 level would signal stabilization, but a breach below $0.115 would open downside toward the $0.108–$0.10 support cluster. Current momentum favors the downside scenario, with DOGE underperforming larger cryptocurrencies in what appears to be a broader risk-off environment.

Pudgy Penguins Positions Web3 Consumer IP as Cycle Strength

Distinct from price volatility, Pudgy Penguins is emerging as one of the strongest native NFT brands of this market cycle, evolving beyond speculative “digital luxury goods” positioning into a comprehensive consumer IP platform. The project’s multi-vertical strategy—acquiring mainstream users first through toys and retail partnerships, then introducing them to Web3 through games, NFTs, and the PENGU token—represents a fundamental shift in how crypto projects approach user onboarding.

The ecosystem now demonstrates measurable traction across three dimensions: phygital products generating over $13 million in retail sales with more than 1 million units sold, gaming experiences like Pudgy Party surpassing 500,000 downloads within two weeks, and a widely distributed token reaching over 6 million wallet holders through airdrops. Though market valuations currently price Pudgy at a premium relative to traditional IP peers, sustained success will depend on execution across retail expansion, gaming adoption, and deepening token utility mechanisms.

Broader market dynamics remain subject to geopolitical risks. While the moderation in long-term holder distribution supports continued upside potential toward $100,000, potential escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could trigger broad-based risk aversion and redirect Bitcoin lower regardless of favorable on-chain data.