Cowen's Bitcoin Play Still Offers Major Gains Despite Downturn—MSTR Strategy Analyzed

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza recently reassessed Michael Saylor’s aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy, demonstrating continued confidence in Strategy (MSTR) despite significant market headwinds in 2025. The firm has weathered a challenging period that saw its stock plunge roughly 66% in the latter half of 2025, yet analysts believe the underlying strategy remains fundamentally sound for long-term bitcoin believers.

Revised Price Target Signals Sustained Confidence in Strategy’s Bitcoin Accumulation

While Vitanza trimmed his 12-month price target on MSTR to $440 from his previous $500 estimate, the adjustment still reflects substantial optimism. At the current level near $175, this revised outlook suggests approximately 150% upside potential—a compelling proposition for investors seeking bitcoin exposure through the Saylor-led company.

The analyst’s recalibrated view comes as Strategy continues its relentless capital raising efforts to fund additional bitcoin purchases. The firm raised $1.25 billion recently and deployed those funds to acquire 13,627 more BTC, demonstrating unwavering commitment to accumulation during what Vitanza characterizes as a “temporary depression” in cryptocurrency pricing. BTC currently trades around $84.40K, providing context for the firm’s continued buying strategy.

Lance Vitanza Projects 155,000 Additional BTC as Michael Saylor Doubles Down

Vitanza’s revised models now expect Strategy to accumulate approximately 155,000 bitcoins throughout 2026—a substantial increase from his previous estimate of 90,000 coins. This aggressive projection would push the company’s total BTC holdings above 800,000 coins by year’s end, cementing MSTR’s position as one of the largest bitcoin holders globally.

However, the expanded issuance of common stock at minimal premiums to net asset value has created headwinds for the firm’s bitcoin yield metrics. The analyst now models a 7.1% BTC Yield for 2026, down from his prior 8.8% estimate and compared to the 22.8% yield achieved in 2025. Despite this moderation, Vitanza projects the firm’s bitcoin dollar gains at $9.4 billion for 2026, up from his previous $6.3 billion forecast. This apparent contradiction underscores the power of bitcoin appreciation: even with lower yields, dollar gains expand if cryptocurrency prices climb as expected.

Crucially, Vitanza continues viewing MSTR as an effective proxy for bitcoin exposure, particularly for institutional and long-term retail investors seeking leveraged upside to bitcoin price movements. His price projections envision BTC reaching $177,000 by the end of 2026 and surging to $226,000 by the end of 2027—targets that would generate exceptional returns for Strategy shareholders if achieved.

XRP Struggles While Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates the Market

The broader cryptocurrency market experienced significant selling pressure as bitcoin’s pullback triggered widespread risk-off behavior. XRP declined approximately 5.47% to trade near $1.81, as traders exited high-beta assets in search of safer positioning. The move accelerated sharply when XRP broke below key support around $1.87 on elevated trading volume, erasing last week’s gains.

Key resistance and support levels now define trader sentiment. The $1.80 zone has emerged as crucial support for XRP, with a sustained recovery above $1.87–$1.90 required to signal a corrective bounce rather than the start of a deeper downtrend. Until these technical levels hold, selling pressure is likely to persist among risk-averse participants.

The divergence between Vitanza’s bullish Strategy outlook and current market weakness highlights a critical tension in crypto markets: conviction-based accumulation strategies can prosper during pessimistic phases if long-term thesis proves correct. Saylor’s willingness to continue purchasing bitcoin during volatility—and Cowen’s maintained confidence in the strategy—suggests sophisticated investors view current conditions as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to retreat.