2026: The Year of the Inflection in the Continuing Capital Markets

An inflection in global financial markets is not a distant possibility — it is a reality that will materialize in 2026. As tokenization accelerates and settlement cycles compress from days to seconds, capital markets face a structural transformation that will mark the inflection point between the century-old operating model and a new era of continuous liquidity. This is the moment when institutions must recognize that the biggest challenge is not technological, but operational.

From the beginning of January until now, several signs indicate that this inflection is already in motion. Global adoption has accelerated while the United States and the United Kingdom face specific regulatory hurdles. The correlation between bitcoin and gold has turned positive for the first time in 2026, suggesting a convergence of safe-haven assets that could redefine institutional allocation strategies.

Tokenization: The Structural Rupture That Defines the Inflection

For three decades, the industry has sought to reduce friction in capital markets — from e-commerce to algorithmic execution to real-time settlement. Tokenization represents the next — and decisive — step in that journey, marking the inflection between traditional access-driven price discovery and truly seamless markets.

The numbers speak for themselves. By 2033, market participants project that the growth of the tokenized asset market is expected to skyrocket to $18.9 trillion. This represents a significant compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% — a logical milestone after decades of incremental attempts. While this estimate is already considered conservative by some analysts, the real inflection goes beyond the numbers: it lies in the transformation of how institutions operate, allocate capital, and manage risk 24/7.

Traditional capital markets still operate on a century-old principle: price discovery in limited time windows, batch settlement, and collateral that remains idle during non-trading periods. When this system faces the reality of a tokenized market, where liquidation occurs in seconds and collateral becomes fungible, inflection becomes inevitable — not by choice, but by the need for competitiveness.

From Theory to Practice: How Institutions Prepare for the Inflection

Capital efficiency is the central axis of this transformation. Today, institutions position assets days in advance. Integrating a new asset class requires not only operational adjustments but also collateral placement — a process that can take five to seven days at a minimum. The T+2 and T+1 cycles (transactions settled one or two days later) lock capital into the pre-financing and settlement risk mechanisms, creating a systemic drag that affects the entire economy.

Tokenization eliminates this resistance. When collateral becomes fungible and liquidation occurs in seconds instead of days, institutions can reallocate portfolios continuously. Stocks, bonds, and digital assets become interchangeable components of a single, always-on capital allocation strategy, where the distinction between weeks and weekends disappears.

To prepare for this inflection, institutions must move from discrete batch cycles to continuous processes. This means implementing 24-hour collateral management, real-time AML/KYC, digital custody integration, and the acceptance of stablecoins as the functional settlement rails. Risk, treasury, and settlement operations teams can no longer operate in traditional time frames.

The infrastructure is already forming. Regulated custodians and credit intermediation solutions are moving from concept to production. The SEC’s approval to grant the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) authorization to develop a securities tokenization program that records the ownership of stocks, ETFs, and government bonds on the blockchain signals that regulators are taking this inflection seriously. Institutions that begin to build operational capacity for continuous markets will be well positioned to act quickly when regulatory frameworks take hold.

Signs of Transformation: Regulation, Adoption, and the Market in Motion

While some markets face specific hurdles, global adoption continues to accelerate. South Korea has lifted a 9-year ban on corporate investment in crypto, now allowing public companies to hold up to 5% of their share capital in crypto assets, limited to major tokens like BTC and ETH. This is a clear sign that the inflection is occurring in multiple geographies simultaneously.

Interactive Brokers, an electronic trading giant, has launched a feature that allows customers to deposit USDC (and soon RLUSD from Ripple and PYUSD from PayPal) to fund brokerage accounts instantly, 24/7. This is a practical example of inflection in action — the establishment of channels that connect traditional finance with the digital asset ecosystem.

The Ethereum network has seen a significant increase in the number of new addresses interacting with the platform, indicating renewed participation. Simultaneously, the approval of new investment vehicles and the expansion of DeFi protocols demonstrate that the market is in a transition phase.

Nevertheless, challenges remain. The critical legislative proposal on crypto in the U.S. faces hurdles in the Senate Banking Committee, particularly around the issue of stablecoin yield — a point of friction that puts traditional banks and non-bank issuers at odds. Addressing these regulatory issues is essential before large-scale deployment, but the regulatory inflection has already begun.

The Challenges of Year Two: Avoiding Failure as the Inflection Takes Hold

2025 was, in many ways, the “freshman year” for the crypto market in the U.S. institutional context. The year began with a powerful rally after the election result, continued with all-time highs and stablecoins everywhere, but ended with volatility and confidence tests that reminded attendees that the journey toward the ultimate inflection is not linear.

2026, therefore, is the second year — a year in which construction, growth, and specialization must occur. But this inflection will only be successful if the industry addresses some critical points.

First, the legislation must move forward. The CLARITY Bill faces a rocky road, with controversy over stablecoin rewards complicating an already challenging timeline. Small points must be set aside and compromises must be made in order for this critical legislation to move forward.

Second, the distribution needs to be discovered. The fundamental challenge of crypto remains building meaningful channels beyond self-directed traders. Until the market reaches retail, mass affluent, wealth, and institutional with the same incentives for allocation as other asset classes, institutional acceptance will not translate into real performance.

Third, quality should be the focus. Last year’s relative performance demonstrates that larger, higher-quality digital assets will continue to prevail. The top twenty names — large-cap coins, smart contract platforms like Ethereum, DeFi protocols, and infrastructure pillars — offer variety for diversification without cognitive overload.

Bitcoin, Gold, and the Convergence That Marks the Inflection

A crucial development has occurred recently: bitcoin’s 30-day moving correlation with gold has turned positive for the first time in 2026, reaching 0.40. This comes as gold hits new all-time highs, suggesting that the inflection is not only in capital markets, but also in the reconfiguration of how safe-haven assets are perceived and traded.

Despite this positive correlative change, BTC remains technically pressured. In the latest available data, bitcoin traded around $84.54K (down 5.81% in the previous 24 hours), failing to reclaim its 50-week EMA. Ethereum, meanwhile, recorded a price of around $2.83K with a drop of 6.20%.

The critical point to monitor is whether a sustained uptrend in gold will provide medium-term momentum for bitcoin, confirming a real convergence between safe-haven assets, or whether persistent BTC price weakness will indicate a decoupling of traditional assets. This answer will be key to understanding whether the inflection in ongoing capital markets will be accompanied by a reconfiguration in asset hierarchies.

The Inflection Is Now

2026 marks the inflection point where continuous markets move from the theoretical to the structural. Institutions that can manage liquidity and risk on an ongoing basis will capture flows that others structurally cannot. Infrastructure is already forming, regulators are signaling seriousness, and global adoption is accelerating.

The question that each institution must answer is no longer whether markets will operate 24/7 — because this inflection is inevitable. The question is, will your institution be able to do it? If you can’t build the operational capacity now to participate in this transformation, you may not be part of this new paradigm emerging in 2026 and beyond.