Derivatives Market Shows Bearish Signals: Bitcoin Started 2026 Under Pressure

Bitcoin’s current price of $83.57K (down 6.38% in 24 hours) is a far cry from the January $95,000 mark that the cryptocurrency rose to at the beginning of the year. However, the most comprehensive indicators of what may happen next remain derivatives in the trading data: traders believe that by the end of June, the probability of BTC falling below $80,000 is about 30%. These are not just abstract numbers – they are a collective forecast based on real money staked in on-chain protocols and centralized exchanges.

Derivatives Language: What Traders Are Doing Right Now

On the decentralized Derive.xyz platform and the world’s largest centralized options exchange, Deribit, there is a clear slope: speculators manipulate huge amounts in put options with strike prices ranging from $75,000 to $80,000. Such positions are essentially “insurance” against a deep correction, and their concentration signals the expectation of a fall to the middle of $70,000.

“The derivatives markets show a clear negative inclination, with a 30% chance of BTC falling below $80,000 by June 26, compared to a 19% chance of it rising above $120,000 over the same period,” commented Sean Dawson, head of protocol research, in a conversation with CoinDesk.

The option bias (the difference in price between call and put options) remains negative, which is a classic indicator of bearish sentiment on short-term horizons. This means that the cost of falling protection is more expensive than rising bets – a simple but powerful signal of market fear.

Why geopolitical tensions increase uncertainty

The trigger for these fears is not only technical factors, but also rhetoric in the White House. President Donald Trump threatens to impose a 10% tariff on imports from European countries because of their stance on the annexation of Greenland. This is not an abstract diplomatic dispute – cryptocurrency often serves as a barometer of global uncertainty, and trade wars have historically caused volatility.

Recall that in April 2025, when Trump imposed broad tariffs on imports, Bitcoin fell to $75,000. The current threats open the door to a similar or worse scenario. The drop from 95,000 to the current $83.57K has already caused liquidations worth more than $650 million, demonstrating the fragility of delvation in the system.

“Growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe increase the risk of a transition to a regime with more volatility, which is not currently fully reflected in spot prices,” Dawson added.

How to read the language of derivative contracts

For beginners, options markets may seem complicated, but the logic is simple: an option is a “what if” bet. You pay a small commission (premium) to lock in the right to a future trade at the price set today.

Call Option: you bet on growth. If BTC exceeds the strike price, you make a profit by buying cheap. If it is lower, you lose the bonus.

Put option: you insure against falling or speculate on a loss. If BTC falls below the strike price, you make a profit. If it grows, the bonus is lost.

It is the high open interest in fetters that informs professionals that the collective market is studying pessimistic scenarios.

Funding Signals and Federal Perspective

The perpetual futures funding indicator shows signs that a temporary low may be approaching, however, one analyst suggested that a true reversal may not happen until the Federal Reserve begins to significantly ease monetary policy. With gold and stocks recovering from their worst performances of the day, Bitcoin remains at lows, raising questions about the depth of a potential dip.

Conclusion: derivatives as a litmus test of the market

Derivatives data tells a truth that PR specialists often try to hide: when big players talk about options positions, they think about the worst. The 30% probability of falling below $80,000 is not a forecast, but a collective risk assessment. Whether this happens will depend on how geopolitical tensions develop and how monetary policy reacts to global uncertainty.