Options markets assign 30% probability to Bitcoin's fall below $80,000

As 2026 enters with Bitcoin facing upward pressures that took it to $95,000, investors specializing in derivatives are preparing for a much less optimistic scenario. Currently, with BTC trading at $83.92K (down 6.23% over the past 24 hours), trading data signals that there is a significant likelihood of deeper corrections in the coming months.

Derivatives Market Signals

Data from Derive.xyz, the decentralized platform for options and structured products, shows genuinely bearish expectations. Traders have assigned a 30% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 before June 26, while they barely attribute the 19% chance to it climbing above $120,000 in the same period. This uneven distribution reveals where the market’s smart money is actually positioned.

Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange, reflects a similar trend. Sean Dawson, head of research at protocol Derive, told CoinDesk: “Options markets show a clear downward tilt, with a 30% chance that BTC will fall below $80,000 by June 26.” There is a considerable concentration of open interest in put options (contracts that gain value when the price falls) with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, implying expectations of a drop towards the $70,000 area.

How Options Reveal Price Expectations

To understand why these metrics are important, it’s helpful to know how the options work. Basically, they are derivative bets on price movements. An investor pays a small fee to secure a “what if” deal: if Bitcoin exceeds a predetermined level, he makes money by buying cheap (call option); If it falls below a certain threshold, it makes a profit by selling high (put option).

The probability that options traders assign is, in essence, the market’s consensus on what will happen. When the 30% probability points to a drop below $80,000, that means that a significant portion of sophisticated capital is positioning defensively. This level would be the lowest since April 2025, when Trump’s widespread tariff shock had depressed Bitcoin to $75,000.

Geopolitical risks accelerate downward pressures

Renewed trade tensions are fueling this cautious mindset. Trump has recently threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from ten European nations, in retaliation for opposing his plan to take control of Greenland. This increase in geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe represents a genuine risk to prices.

According to Dawson, “Rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe — particularly around Greenland — raises the risk of a regime shift to a more volatile environment, a dynamic that is not currently reflected in spot prices.” The negative options tilt (the price difference between calls and puts) remains in bearish territory, indicating fears of further declines in the near term.

History of Declines: When Tariffs Rattled the Market

History offers a disturbing precedent. In April 2025, when Trump implemented widespread tariffs against multiple countries, global markets reeled, and Bitcoin plummeted to $75,000. That event demonstrated that protectionist trading initiatives can be powerful catalysts for liquidity crises in cryptocurrencies, especially when there is significant leverage on long positions.

Spot trading volumes have also shown worrying weakness, falling by half compared to a year earlier: from $1.7 trillion to $900 billion. This cooling reflects widespread caution among institutional and retail investors in the face of broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

The risk landscape ahead

Bitcoin has fallen from $95,000 to its current level of $83.92K, eroding gains from the start of the year. If the 30% probability assigned by derivatives markets materializes, we would be facing a dramatic correction that would erase more than $10,000 of value. Trade tensions, political pressures and weak investor sentiment converge in a scenario where prudence seems to be gaining ground over speculation.